Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
US job openings fell in February while layoffs remained subdued, adding to evidence of a labor market that's only gradually cooling. The number of available positions decreased to 7.57 million from a revised 7.76 million reading in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.66 million openings. The pullback in openings was driven by declines in retail trade, financial activities and accommodation and food services. After steadily declining...
US factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year and prices accelerated sharply for a second month as the drumbeat of higher tariffs reverberated through the economy. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, according to data released Tuesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction and the figure was slightly weaker than the median production in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The group's price measure increased another 7 points to 69.4, still the highest since June 2022. Over the past two months, the...
China's official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in March 2025, up from 50.4 in February, marking the highest reading in three months and exceeding market expectations of 50.5. The new orders index climbed to 46.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a rebound in demand within the non-manufacturing sector. The input price index edged up to 48.6%, rising 0.2 points, indicating a slower decline in operating costs for non-manufacturing firms. Meanwhile, the sales price index fell to 46.7%, down 1.1 points, suggesting that overall sales prices continued to...
Japan's industrial production grew at the fastest clip in nearly a year, as manufacturers sought to meet strong demand before the US implements new tariffs on autos and auto parts. Factory output increased in February by 2.5% from January, the first advance in four months and marking the fastest gain since March last year, the Industry Ministry reported Monday. Economists had expected a 2.0% gain. Output rose 0.3% from a year ago, missing the consensus call of a 1.2% rise. The ministry also reported that retail sales increased 0.5% in February from...
The U.S. Federal Reserve's seemingly locked-in path to a soft landing, already roiled by the arrival of the Trump administration, may be growing even more complicated as evidence of consumer caution about spending starts to align with new inflation risks and another jump in inflation expectations. Consumer spending and inflation data for February accentuated the point, with spending near zero once adjusted for inflation and a key measure of inflation itself increasing. "No matter how you want to slice it, it's shaping up to be a very weak quarter for real spending, and it may end up being...
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in February 2025, maintaining the same pace as the previous two months, and in line with expectations. Prices for goods rose 0.2%, below 0.5% in January and prices for services increased 0.4%, above 0.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.4%, the most since January 2024, above 0.3% in the previous month and forecasts of 0.3%. Food prices steadied (vs 0.3% in January) while prices for energy goods and services were up...
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Thursday the current level of monetary policy is in a "good place," in a further sign the central bank is leaning toward keeping rates steady at a time of rising tariff-induced uncertainty. "We are waiting for the fog to clear," Barkin said in prepared remarks for an economics lecture at Washington and Lee University. "With the labor market still solid and inflation still above target, our moderately restrictive stance is a good place to be." The Richmond Fed president did say, however, that if "conditions start to shift, we are well...
Initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 1,000 to 224,000 in the week ending March 22, marginally below market expectations of 225,000, to remain at historically low levels. In the meantime, recurring claims fell by 25,000 in the second week of the month. The results continued to indicate that the US hosts a robust labor market despite the prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy and the pessimistic batch of soft data released during the first quarter of the year. In the meantime, unemployment claims filed under programs for Federal government employees, which have...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....