Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Markets may still be underestimating the risk of a full-blown U.S. recession following the sharp escalation in tariffs on Chinese goods, Goldman Sachs analyst said in a note. In the wake of the tariff announcement, U.S. markets experienced one of the largest two-day growth downgrades in decades, with implied GDP growth expectations dropping by 130 basis points—on par with shocks seen during COVID, the global financial crisis, and Black Monday in 1987, analysts said. Despite the massive selloff on Wall Street on April 3 and April 4, Goldman Sachs noted that markets have yet to fully price...
The United States said Tuesday that 104% tariffs on Chinese imports would go into effect shortly after midnight, even as the Trump administration moved quickly to begin talks with other trading partners targeted by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff plans. U.S. stocks slumped on the news. Global markets had earlier posted gains on hopes that Trump might be willing to negotiate a series of country- and product-specific trade barriers he has built around the world's largest consumer market. The administration has scheduled talks with South Korea and Japan, two close allies and major...
Indonesia's consumer prices rose by 1.03% yoy in March 2025, below forecasts of a 1.16% gain, after a 0.09% drop in February. It was the highest inflation since last December as the electricity tariff returned to normal after discounting for the first two months of 2025 and rising consumption amid the Eid al-Fitr festive season. Core inflation, excluding administered and volatile food prices, stood at a 20-month high of 2.48%, slightly surpassing forecasts of a 2.50% rise. Monthly, the CPI increased by 1.65%, the most since December 2014, reversing a 0.48% fall in February, compared to...
US President Donald Trump continued his trend of issuing edicts via social media on Monday (07/4), lashing out at China's retaliatory tariffs last week. President Trump issued an Executive Order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs of 34% on all Chinese goods imported into the US on Wednesday, triggering retaliatory tariffs of 34% from China. The new 50% tariffs, which will be cumulative with the US's overall tariff of 10% and a targeted "reciprocal" tariff of 34%, will go into effect on Tuesday, April 8. If the Trump administration succeeds in imposing additional tariffs in the short term, US...
Imports to Germany increased by 0.7% month-over-month to EUR 113.8 billion in February 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 5% gain in the previous month. Arrivals from EU countries grew by 2.3%, mainly due to increased purchases from both the Euro area (2.8%) and the non-Euro area (1.4%). Meanwhile, arrivals from third countries declined by 1%, primarily driven by lower purchases from the US (-3.9%), the UK (-5.2%), and the Russian Federation (-4.5%). source: Federal Statistical OfficeExports from Germany rose by 1.8% month-over-month to a ten-month high of EUR 131.6 billion in February...
Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday evening that they now expect an even greater chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, especially after President Donald Trump unveiled his agenda for reciprocal tariffs. Goldman Sachs hiked its odds of a 2025 recession to 45% from 35% a week ago. The investment bank had last week also hiked its recession forecast. Goldman Sachs said "a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed" drove its heightened...
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that unless the China trade deficit is solved, there will be no deal, according to Reuters. Trump further stated that "sometimes you have to take medicine" when asked about recent market volatility, insisting he was not deliberately trying to trigger a selloff. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy will remain in place for days and weeks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that more than 50 nations have approached the administration for negotiations but cautioned,...
The US economy added 228K jobs in March 2025, well above a downwardly revised 117K in February and beating forecasts of 135K. It is the strongest figure in three months, as job gains occurred in health care (54K), social assistance (24K), and in transportation and warehousing (23K). Employment also increased in retail trade (24K), partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined by 4K, following a loss of 11K jobs in February. Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....