The US dollar index fluctuated around 98.4 on Thursday, but remained within the previous session's strengthening zone. The market appeared cautious as investors began to position themselves ahead of the November US CPI release, which is expected to show price pressures remain above the Fed's target. Mixed US labor data earlier this week hasn't significantly changed the market outlook—investors still expect at least one interest rate cut in the future. Fed official Christopher Waller said there's still room to cut rates due to signs the labor market is softening, while Raphael Bostic was...
US President Donald Trump continued his trend of issuing edicts via social media on Monday (07/4), lashing out at China's retaliatory tariffs last week. President Trump issued an Executive Order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs of 34% on all Chinese goods imported into the US on Wednesday, triggering retaliatory tariffs of 34% from China. The new 50% tariffs, which will be cumulative with the US's overall tariff of 10% and a targeted "reciprocal" tariff of 34%, will go into effect on Tuesday, April 8. If the Trump administration succeeds in imposing additional tariffs in the short term, US...
Imports to Germany increased by 0.7% month-over-month to EUR 113.8 billion in February 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 5% gain in the previous month. Arrivals from EU countries grew by 2.3%, mainly due to increased purchases from both the Euro area (2.8%) and the non-Euro area (1.4%). Meanwhile, arrivals from third countries declined by 1%, primarily driven by lower purchases from the US (-3.9%), the UK (-5.2%), and the Russian Federation (-4.5%). source: Federal Statistical OfficeExports from Germany rose by 1.8% month-over-month to a ten-month high of EUR 131.6 billion in February...
Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday evening that they now expect an even greater chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, especially after President Donald Trump unveiled his agenda for reciprocal tariffs. Goldman Sachs hiked its odds of a 2025 recession to 45% from 35% a week ago. The investment bank had last week also hiked its recession forecast. Goldman Sachs said "a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed" drove its heightened...
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that unless the China trade deficit is solved, there will be no deal, according to Reuters. Trump further stated that "sometimes you have to take medicine" when asked about recent market volatility, insisting he was not deliberately trying to trigger a selloff. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that the tariffs would not be postponed and the policy will remain in place for days and weeks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that more than 50 nations have approached the administration for negotiations but cautioned,...
The US economy added 228K jobs in March 2025, well above a downwardly revised 117K in February and beating forecasts of 135K. It is the strongest figure in three months, as job gains occurred in health care (54K), social assistance (24K), and in transportation and warehousing (23K). Employment also increased in retail trade (24K), partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined by 4K, following a loss of 11K jobs in February. Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and...
China's reaction to new U.S. tariffs will likely focus on domestic stimulus and strengthening ties with trading partners, according to analysts based in Greater China. Hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced additional 34% tariffs on China, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called on the U.S. to cancel the tariffs, and vowed unspecified countermeasures. The sweeping U.S. policy also slapped new duties on the European Union and major Asian countries. Chinese exports to the U.S. this year had already been hit by 20% in additional tariffs, raising the total rate on shipments from...
The ISM Services PMI fell sharply to 50.8 in March 2025 from 53.5 in February, well below forecasts of 53. The reading pointed to the softest expansion in the services sector since June last year. New orders (50.4 vs 52.2) and inventories (50.3 vs 50.6) slowed and employment contracted sharply (46.2 vs 53.9). Also, supplier deliveries eased (50.6 vs 53.4) and backlogs of orders indicated contraction for the seventh time in the last eight months (47.4 vs 51.7). Meanwhile, production rose faster (55.9 vs 54.4) and price pressures eased (60.9 vs 62.6). " There has been a significant increase...
Initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 6,000 to 219,000 in the week ending March 29, below market expectations of 225,000, to remain at historically low levels. In the meantime, recurring claims rose by 56,000 to 1903,000 in the previous week, the highest since November 2021 and well above forecast. In the meantime, unemployment claims filed under programs for Federal government employees, which have been under close scrutiny due to firings by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), fell by 257 to 564. Despite the decrease, reports that many firings by DOGE were...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....