Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The U.S.-China deal to lower the most aggressive import tariffs between the world's two largest economies could lessen the impact of their trade war, though the levies left in place are still steep and will leave a mark on the economy, Federal Reserve officials said on Monday. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said the 90-day pause on import levies at levels that threatened to shut down bilateral trade reduces chances that the U.S. central bank will need to lower interest rates in response to an economic slowdown. The outcome of the weekend meetings between Chinese and U.S. officials...
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee took a cautionary stance on the ever-evolving trade stance of the Trump administration on Monday. According to Goolsbee's interview with The New York Times, constantly-changing tariffs and trade strategies from the White House have thrown a very large wrench in plans for hiring and investment for many industries, pinning the Fed in a wait-and-see mode on interest rates. On the US-China tariff reduction: It is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on.Yet it's three to five times higher than what it...
A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks has propelled world stocks and the dollar higher, but investors fear further negotiations could prove a long slog, tempering optimism, as risks of a global economic slowdown persist. After two days of talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the two sides had agreed to a 90-day pause on measures and that tariffs would fall by over 100 percentage points. That leaves U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% from May 14 to August 12 and Chinese duties on U.S. imports at 10%, beating investors' best-case...
The United States and China have agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs in a deal that surpassed expectations as the world's two biggest economies seek to end a damaging trade war that has stoked fears of recession and roiled financial markets. The U.S. will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two countries said on Monday. The new measures are effective for 90 days. The dollar rose against other major currencies and stock markets lifted following the news, which helped...
The US and China both reported "substantial progress" after two days of talks in Switzerland aimed at defusing a trade war, marking what Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called an "important first step" toward resolving differences. While neither side immediately announced specific steps on Sunday, He said the world's two largest economies agreed to set up a mechanism for further talks, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and himself. Bessent said the US would share details on Monday and He promised a joint statement. "As we say in China, if the dish is delicious, the timing doesn't...
China and the United States start their first major Trade War Two meeting on Saturday to pull back from what analysts describe as a lose-lose situation for their economies, without much clarity on what a win would look like for either side. China is at the epicentre of U.S. President Donald Trump's global trade war that has roiled financial markets, upended supply chains and fuelled risks of a sharp worldwide economic downturn. Washington wants to reduce its trade deficit with Beijing and convince China to renounce what the U.S. says is a mercantilist economic model and contribute more to...
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the trade deal concluded between the United States and Britain was a good thing but still left tariffs on most British goods exports to the U.S. higher than they were before last month. Before details of the deal were announced on Thursday, the BoE published estimates showing U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans as of April 29 would shrink Britain's economy by about 0.3% over three years. Around two thirds of the hit was due to the direct impact of tariffs in reducing demand for British exports in the United States and elsewhere, while the...
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff agenda is likely to push up inflation, weigh on employment, and dent growth later this year, according to Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr. Should prices and unemployment begin to rise, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee may be in a more difficult position as they assess their next policy moves, Barr added in prepared remarks to the Central Bank of Iceland on Friday. "The size and scope of the recent tariff increases are without modern precedent, we don't know their final form, and it is too soon to know how they will affect the...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....