The US dollar index fluctuated around 98.4 on Friday (December 19) and is expected to close the week relatively unchanged. Investors are still weighing the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next year, as inflation continues to decline and signs of weakness in the US labor market emerge. The latest inflation data indicates price pressures are easing. The November CPI report showed headline inflation fell to 2.7%, the lowest since July and below market expectations. Core inflation also weakened to 2.6%, the slowest pace since early 2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to...
Goldman Sachs has said it now sees a 35% chance of the U.S. entering a recession, down from a prior estimate of 45%, following an agreement between the U.S. and China that sparked hopes for an easing in recently intensifying trade tensions. In a note to clients, the brokerage also lifted its projection for U.S. gross domestic product growth this year by 0.5 percentage points to 1%. On Monday, Washington and Beijing announced that they had reached an agreement that would slash their sky-high respective tariffs on each other and pause the levies for 90 days. U.S. tariffs on China were...
The easing of trade tensions between the United States and China is a step in the right direction and helps reduce European fears of being flooded with Chinese goods redirected from the U.S. market, European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said. Speaking to reporters after a meeting of European Union finance ministers on Tuesday, Dombrovskis noted, however, that the reduction of tariffs after weekend talks in Switzerland was for 90 days and the tariff rates that remained were still high. "Obviously this easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China is heading in the right...
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, stood at a four-year low of 2.8% in April 2025, unchanged from March and matching market forecasts. The shelter index, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase, was at 4%, matching March's reading. Increases were also seen for medical care (1%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.4%), education (+3.8%), and recreation (+1.6%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in April, up from the 0.1% increase in March, just below market expectations of...
The U.S.-China deal to lower the most aggressive import tariffs between the world's two largest economies could lessen the impact of their trade war, though the levies left in place are still steep and will leave a mark on the economy, Federal Reserve officials said on Monday. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said the 90-day pause on import levies at levels that threatened to shut down bilateral trade reduces chances that the U.S. central bank will need to lower interest rates in response to an economic slowdown. The outcome of the weekend meetings between Chinese and U.S. officials...
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee took a cautionary stance on the ever-evolving trade stance of the Trump administration on Monday. According to Goolsbee's interview with The New York Times, constantly-changing tariffs and trade strategies from the White House have thrown a very large wrench in plans for hiring and investment for many industries, pinning the Fed in a wait-and-see mode on interest rates. On the US-China tariff reduction: It is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on.Yet it's three to five times higher than what it...
A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks has propelled world stocks and the dollar higher, but investors fear further negotiations could prove a long slog, tempering optimism, as risks of a global economic slowdown persist. After two days of talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the two sides had agreed to a 90-day pause on measures and that tariffs would fall by over 100 percentage points. That leaves U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% from May 14 to August 12 and Chinese duties on U.S. imports at 10%, beating investors' best-case...
The United States and China have agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs in a deal that surpassed expectations as the world's two biggest economies seek to end a damaging trade war that has stoked fears of recession and roiled financial markets. The U.S. will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two countries said on Monday. The new measures are effective for 90 days. The dollar rose against other major currencies and stock markets lifted following the news, which helped...
The US and China both reported "substantial progress" after two days of talks in Switzerland aimed at defusing a trade war, marking what Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called an "important first step" toward resolving differences. While neither side immediately announced specific steps on Sunday, He said the world's two largest economies agreed to set up a mechanism for further talks, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and himself. Bessent said the US would share details on Monday and He promised a joint statement. "As we say in China, if the dish is delicious, the timing doesn't...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....