Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25bp Fed cut in December, influenced by dovish Fed chatter and signs of a slowing US economy, while the US Dollar (USD) shows mixed reactions. Kevin Hassett seen as dovish Fed chair contender"On Friday, I discussed the correction in interest rate expectations for the December meeting in detail, emphasising that it is important not to focus too much on the movements for this particular meeting, but rather to keep an eye on the bigger picture. It seems as if market participants saw it similarly. In recent days, expectations for the December meeting have...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday he was concluding a second round of interviews later in the day for a new U.S. Federal Reserve leader, and there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is seen by allies and advisers of Trump as the frontrunner, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. Hassett, like Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are now under the leadership of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Bessent has narrowed the search for a successor...
Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push through an interest rate cut during the central bank's December 9-10 meeting, the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos reported on Monday. But the decision is likely to be contested in an increasingly divided rate-setting committee, especially as a lack of clear data points for October leave the Fed flying blind into its final meeting for the year. Powell is likely to weigh two options, Timiraos said one involving an immediate rate cut before adopting a more cautious stance for further decisions, while...
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said he is uneasy about cutting interest rates in the face of too-high inflation that's steady at best and by some measures getting worse, remarks that signal a reluctance to support a third straight reduction in borrowing costs next month. "My unease is about the short-run front-loading of too many rate cuts and counting on ... the inflation uptick that we've seen being transitory," Goolsbee told reporters in a virtual interview. "I'm not hawkish when it comes to rates over the medium term: I think rates are going to go down,...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...