Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
The Federal Reserve is shifting from the driving seat back to the back seat, moving to data dependence just as it faces a data blackout due to the government shutdown. Despite these challenges, Morgan Stanley believes rate cuts in December and January remain on the table as the softer labor market will continue to drive monetary policy. The shutdown has suspended several official data releases, including critical jobs reports, leaving the Fed to rely more on market signals and private sector data. "The Fed is effectively flying blind for now," Morgan Stanley economists said in a recent...
At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained why policymakers had decided to lower the Federal Funds Target Range (FFTR) to 3.75%–4.00% after the October meeting and took questions from reporters about the move. Chief Powell's press conference takeawaysData available suggests the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting. Prior to shutdown, data showed the economy may be on a firmer trajectory. Shutdown will weigh on economic activity while it persists and should reverse when it ends. Labour demand has clearly...
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The move followed a similar cut in September, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Policymakers cited increasing downside risks to employment in recent months while inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Governor Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50bps and Governor Schmid dissented in favor of holding rates steady. In addition, the...
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and publish the Monetary Policy Statement following the October policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering it to the range of 3.75%-4%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors are fully pricing in the 25 bps reduction in October and see about a 95% probability of one more 25 bps cut at the last policy meeting of the year in December. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published in...
The Fed is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps at its October 2025 meeting, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. A similar cut is expected in September, which would lower borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Markets will be closely watching the December guidance, although policymakers are not expected to provide significant new insights. The policy backdrop has become increasingly uncertain amid the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic indicators. Among the limited data available, the CPI report showed headline inflation edged up...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...