Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to below 50%. As if to underscore the knife-edge decision, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - until now a firm supporter of the Fed's rate cuts - said on Thursday any decision about four weeks ahead of the next policy meeting is "premature." "I have an open mind, but I haven't made a...
Fed increasingly fractured over Dec rate cut Federal Reserve officials are growing increasingly fractured over whether to cut interest rates in December, the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos reported on Tuesday. Timiraos who earned the moniker of the "Fed whisperer," said officials are split over what poses a greater threat to the economy sticky inflation or a sluggish labor market with recent delays in official data, due to a prolonged government shutdown, adding to this friction. The central bank had cut interest rates by 25 basis points in near unanimous decisions in September and...
Global financial market optimism has increased after the latest data indicated a strong chance that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates in December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut is now around 67 to 70 percent. This move is seen as a response to slowing US economic growth and pressure from fiscal uncertainty triggered by the government shutdown that lasted more than a month. Analysts believe that a moderate cut will help maintain economic momentum toward the end of the year without reigniting...
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said better-than-expected inflation data and signs of continued weakness in the labor market call for a third consecutive interest rate cut in December. In the absence of new economic information due to the government shutdown, a half-point cut next month is still "appropriate," Miran said Monday in an interview with CNBC. "At a minimum," he added, the central bank should lower rates by an additional quarter of a percentage point. "We have new inflation data that is better than expected, which would lead one to think that it would be reasonable to be...
Slowing payroll growth in the U.S. is more likely the result of weaker demand for workers rather than reduced labor force from tightened immigration policies, according to San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly. In an essay published Monday, Daly noted that slowing wage growth indicates businesses need fewer workers rather than struggling to find employees amid immigration restrictions implemented by the Trump administration. Monthly job growth in the U.S. has declined from approximately 150,000 per month in 2024 to around 50,000 in the first half of 2025. "Demand for workers...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...