Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
According to a poll by Reuters, 115 of 117 economists have predicted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in the monetary policy announcement on October 29. For the entire year, the United States (US) Fed will cut its Funds Rate twice more this year, say 83 of 117 economists, 32 say once. The bigger risk to the Fed rate policy by the end of this cycle is that it would set rates too low, say 25 of 33 economists. Despite intensified speculation among economists that the Fed will reduce interest rates in its two upcoming policy...
The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's own economic field reporting, still underway at the self-funded central bank, showed possible cracks in consumer spending, and...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he favors another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of worrisome labor market developments, while a colleague again made the case for an even more aggressive path of cuts. "Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the (Fed's policy committee) should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points" at the end of October, Waller said in a speech given to a Council on Foreign Relations gathering in New York. What comes after that meeting, Waller said,...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he's on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of the mixed readings on the state of the job market. "Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the (Fed's policy committee) should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points at our meeting that concludes October 29," Waller said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. What comes after that meeting, Waller said, depends...
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The Fed chairman also indicated that the labor market outlook continues to deteriorate, a message that supports investor expectations for another interest rate cut this month. "Our long-held plan is to stop shrinking the balance sheet when foreign exchange reserves are slightly above a level we judge to be consistent with adequate foreign exchange reserve conditions," Powell said Tuesday in prepared remarks for an event with the National Association for Business Economics in...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...