Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor whose term ends at the end of January, said Thursday that he is looking for 150 basis points of interest-rate cuts this year to boost the U.S. labor market. Miran told Bloomberg Television's Surveillance program that Fed officials had room to further reduce rates given his view that underlying inflation was likely running at 2.3%. "I'm looking for about a point and a half of cuts. A lot of that is driven by my view of inflation," Miran said. "Underlying inflation is running within noise of our target, and that's a good indication of where overall...
The global economy is entering a fragile phase, with growth slowing, while the shadow of recession has not completely disappeared. The World Bank projects global economic growth of only around 2.3% in 2025, with a "sluggish" recovery in the following years. In the United States, several models now assess the probability of a recession in the range of 20–40% by the end of 2025, indicating that downside risks remain real even though they are not yet a baseline scenario. The IMF also warns that prolonged uncertainty, protectionism, and fiscal vulnerabilities could trigger further shocks to...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday the U.S. central bank needs to "proceed slowly" with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Kansas City Fed event, Jefferson said he agreed the central bank's quarter-percentage-point rate cut last month was appropriate, given increased risks to the job market and the likelihood that inflation risks "have declined somewhat recently." "The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have...
Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to below 50%. As if to underscore the knife-edge decision, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - until now a firm supporter of the Fed's rate cuts - said on Thursday any decision about four weeks ahead of the next policy meeting is "premature." "I have an open mind, but I haven't made a...
Fed increasingly fractured over Dec rate cut Federal Reserve officials are growing increasingly fractured over whether to cut interest rates in December, the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos reported on Tuesday. Timiraos who earned the moniker of the "Fed whisperer," said officials are split over what poses a greater threat to the economy sticky inflation or a sluggish labor market with recent delays in official data, due to a prolonged government shutdown, adding to this friction. The central bank had cut interest rates by 25 basis points in near unanimous decisions in September and...
Global financial market optimism has increased after the latest data indicated a strong chance that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates in December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut is now around 67 to 70 percent. This move is seen as a response to slowing US economic growth and pressure from fiscal uncertainty triggered by the government shutdown that lasted more than a month. Analysts believe that a moderate cut will help maintain economic momentum toward the end of the year without reigniting...
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that achieving 2% inflation is getting closer, although real inflation remains low. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...