Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Exports from Indonesia unexpectedly grew by 3.16% year-on-year to a three-month high of USD 23.25 billion in March 2025, beating forecasts of a 3.4% fall, despite easing from a marginally revised 13.86% jump in February. This marked the 12th straight month of export growth, though it was the softest pace since last July as non-oil and gas exports rose by 2.56% to USD 21.80 billion, slowing sharply from a 15.40% surge in February. Sales grew to the U.S. (20.06%), China (9.51%), ASEAN (6.82%), and the EU (21.52%). Among commodities, sales increased mainly for animal/vegetable fats and oils...
U.S. President Donald Trump again called for Powell to cut rates.Economic activity might ‘fall off' in summer, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said.The Trump administration could overhaul the U.S. State Department.Fees on Chinese-built vessels will be imposed by the Trump administration.Ukraine said it had signed the outline of a mineral deal with the U.S.Tesla and Alphabet are announcing first-quarter earnings this week.An independent central bank is seen by most (including this newsletter) as the bedrock of a functional economy. Officials steer the economy by calibrating the...
China's ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, has urged Washington to seek common ground with Beijing and pursue peaceful coexistence while warning that China stood ready to retaliate in the escalating trade war. Speaking at a public event in Washington on Saturday, details of which were posted on the Chinese embassy's web site, Xie said tariffs would devastate the global economy and drew a parallel between the Great Depression and tariffs imposed by the U.S. in 1930. Referring to concepts in traditional Chinese medicine like the need to balance the opposing forces of yin and yang,...
President Donald Trump said he was reluctant to continue ratcheting up tariffs on China because it could stall trade between the two countries, and insisted Beijing had repeatedly reached out in a bid to broker a deal. Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, said officials he believed represented the Chinese leader Xi Jinping had sought to start talks. But he repeatedly sidestepped direct questions about whether he and Xi had been in direct contact. "I have a very good relationship with President Xi, and I think it's going to continue. And I would say they have reached...
Initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 9,000 from the previous week to 215,000 on the second week of April, contrasting with market expectations that they would rise by 1,000 to 225,000, to mark the lowest number of new claims in over two months. The result continued to reflect a historically tight labor market in the US to extend the momentum from the latest jobs report. In the meantime, continuing claims rose by 41,000 from to 1,885,000 in the prior week, extending their volatile momentum. Source: Trading Economics
The Trump administration confirmed Wednesday morning that the base tariff on products imported into the U.S. from China remains at 145%, after a previously released fact sheet caused confusion in Asian hours. The White House, in a fact sheet on critical minerals released Tuesday afternoon Washington time (early Wednesday in Asia) included language that said China "now faces tariffs of up to 245% on imports into the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions." That language was picked up by some Asian media outlets and Asia-based market analysts who, in the overnight Washington...
Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 1.4% in March to $734.9 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Wednesday. This reading followed the 0.2% increase recorded in February and came in slightly better than the market expectation for an increase 1.3%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 4.6%. "Total sales for the January 2025 through March 2025 period were up 4.1% from the same period," the press release read. "Retail trade sales were up 1.4% from February 2025, and up 4.6% from last year." Source: FXStreet
British inflation slowed to its weakest in three months in March and other measures watched by the Bank of England cooled too, but higher bills and employer costs will pressure prices soon against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, below expectations of 2.7% in a BoE forecast and a Reuters poll of economists. A price drop for computer games and falling fuel prices helped bring down the headline rate although the prices of clothes rose strongly after a surprise fall in February, the Office for...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....