Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
China's reaction to new U.S. tariffs will likely focus on domestic stimulus and strengthening ties with trading partners, according to analysts based in Greater China. Hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced additional 34% tariffs on China, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce called on the U.S. to cancel the tariffs, and vowed unspecified countermeasures. The sweeping U.S. policy also slapped new duties on the European Union and major Asian countries. Chinese exports to the U.S. this year had already been hit by 20% in additional tariffs, raising the total rate on shipments from...
The ISM Services PMI fell sharply to 50.8 in March 2025 from 53.5 in February, well below forecasts of 53. The reading pointed to the softest expansion in the services sector since June last year. New orders (50.4 vs 52.2) and inventories (50.3 vs 50.6) slowed and employment contracted sharply (46.2 vs 53.9). Also, supplier deliveries eased (50.6 vs 53.4) and backlogs of orders indicated contraction for the seventh time in the last eight months (47.4 vs 51.7). Meanwhile, production rose faster (55.9 vs 54.4) and price pressures eased (60.9 vs 62.6). " There has been a significant increase...
Initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 6,000 to 219,000 in the week ending March 29, below market expectations of 225,000, to remain at historically low levels. In the meantime, recurring claims rose by 56,000 to 1903,000 in the previous week, the highest since November 2021 and well above forecast. In the meantime, unemployment claims filed under programs for Federal government employees, which have been under close scrutiny due to firings by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), fell by 257 to 564. Despite the decrease, reports that many firings by DOGE were...
President Donald Trump said Wednesday the United States will impose reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, with higher reciprocal rates for some nations that will be equivalent to "half" of the rate they levy on U.S. exports. "I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world," the president said. "Reciprocal... that means they do it to us, and we do and to them." The 10% baseline tariff will go into effect on Apr. 5, while the higher tariffs will begin on Apr. 9. In calculating the tariff rate that other countries...
Private businesses in the US added 155K workers to their payrolls in March 2025, following an upwardly revised 84K in February and above expectations of 105K. Hiring was fairly broad based, with the services sector adding 132K jobs, namely professional and business services (57K) and financial activities (38K). Also, manufacturing contributed 21K and leisure and hospitality added 17K. In contrast, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6K jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3K. "Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March...
The rollout of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs regime is dampening sentiment toward the dollar and prompting investors to look elsewhere for their foreign exchange (FX) trades, strategists told CNBC. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major rivals, was little changed on Wednesday morning. The U.S. currency began a steady rise in late 2024 that peaked in mid-January — however, the dollar index has steadily pared some of those gains in recent weeks. The dollar has historically been widely seen as a safe haven asset for investors, given its...
Japan's 10-year government bond yield dropped below 1.5% on Wednesday, hitting a four-week low as concerns over upcoming US tariffs fueled demand for safe-haven assets. President Donald Trump is set to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that levy duties on US goods, along with additional levies on car imports—posing risks to Japan's key export sector. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic growth. Earlier data showed that Japanese business sentiment weakened in the first quarter amid mounting...
The German economy will recover from its prolonged period of weakness very slowly, growing by only 0.2% this year, according to the new forecasts of Germany's banks' association, seen by Reuters on Wednesday.The association had previously forecast growth of 0.7% for this year in its forecasts published in September.The economy is not expected to recover noticeably until 2026, with growth of 1.4%, the Association of German Banks said.The German economy has contracted for two consecutive years and its prospects for this year have worsened after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25%...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....