Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The current US tariff rate will drag China's GDP growth lower by c.1.8ppt. Any further increases in tariffs are likely to have little impact on China's growth. Another CNY 1.5-2.0tn of fiscal support is needed, supported by moderately loose monetary policy, Standard Chartered's economists report. The perfect storm"Over the past week, the US and China have announced sweeping tariffs in multiple rounds of retaliation. As of now, China's tariff on US products has jumped to 142%, and the US' tariff on China has surged to 157%, according to our estimate. As bilateral tariffs are already...
Chinese President Xi Jinping will embark on a three-nation Southeast Asia tour next week in his first overseas trip this year to consolidate ties with some of China's closest neighbours as trade tensions with the United States escalate. Xi will visit Vietnam from April 14-15, and Malaysia and Cambodia from April 15-18, state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Friday. China, hit with 145% U.S. tariffs since President Donald Trump took office this year, is quickly moving to reinforce relations with other countries who also lie in the shadow of Washington's damaging trade levies. Some of the...
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, eased to 2.8% in March 2025, down from 3.1% in February and below the market expectation of 3%. This marked the lowest rate since March 2021, driven by slower price increases in shelter (4.0% vs. 4.2% in February), transportation services (3.1% vs. 6.0%), medical care commodities (1.0% vs. 2.3%), apparel (0.3% vs. 0.6%), and used cars and trucks (0.6% vs. 0.8%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.1% in March, following a 0.2% increase in February and below...
Initial jobless claims in the United States rose by 4,000 from the previous week to 223,000 on the first week of April, in line with market expectations, to remain at the historically low levels that were steadily shown since March. In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 43,000 from downwardly revised levels to 1,850,000 in the last week of March, well below market expectations of 1,880,000, to reflect slight traction in individuals finding suitable employment after a period of joblessness. In the meantime, unemployment claims filed under programs for Federal government employees, which...
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The CPI figures could notably impact the US Dollar (USD) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. What to expect in the next CPI data report?As measured by the CPI, inflation in the US is set to rise at an annual pace of 2.6% in March, down slightly from the 2.8% reported in February. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3% in the same period...
Federal Reserve officials flagged the risk of more sustained inflationary pressures from tariffs when they agreed to keep interest rates steady at their meeting last month. "A majority of participants noted the potential for inflationary impacts arising from a variety of factors to be more sustained than they had projected," said the minutes of the March 18-19 policy meeting, released Wednesday. Since that meeting, President Trump has imposed broad and abrupt tariff increases that initially exceeded the high end estimates of most private-sector economists and Fed officials. Trump said...
Many companies had been steadily reducing their reliance on China as a manufacturing hub since President Donald Trump's first term, hoping to blunt the impact of punitive levies from the United States. Then his latest "reciprocal" tariffs came along. Trump's move to impose tariffs on goods on a broader swathe of countries is now putting those diversification plans in disarray and leaving companies scrambling to decide where and how their goods are produced. Steve Greenspon, CEO of Illinois-based houseware company Honey-Can-Do International, started moving more of his production from China...
The Indonesian rupiah touched an all-time low of around 16,950 per USD in April as the U.S. readied 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies. Meanwhile, Indonesia faces a 32% tariff from the U.S. President Prabowo Subianto has instructed his cabinet to simplify trade rules and ease non-tariff barriers while assessing the impact on key exports such as textiles, electronics, footwear, and palm oil. Adding to the pressure, Indonesia's current account remained in deficit for the seventh quarter in Q4 of 2024, underscoring structural trade...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....