Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps during its September 2025 meeting, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, in line with expectations. It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran stood alone in voting against the quarter-point move, favoring a half-point cut instead. Policymakers noted that recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat...
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, following the September policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to cut the policy rate for the first time since last December, lowering it to the range of 4%-4.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors see only about a 6% chance of a bigger rate cut, while pricing in about an 80% probability of a total of 75-basis-point (bps) reduction for the remainder of the year....
The Fed is widely expected to slash interest rates at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy gathering, although the size of the possible drawdown and commentary around the move remain a source of debate. Markets are all but certain the central bank will cut borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while there is also a slim chance of a deeper, half-percentage point reduction. Underpinning these estimates have been signs of a weakening U.S. labor market, which are seen overshadowing simultaneous indications of sticky inflation. In...
Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75% at its September 2025 policy meeting, marking the third consecutive monthly rate cut and defying market expectations to hold rates steady at 5.0%. This is the sixth rate reduction since last September, bringing the benchmark rate to its lowest level since October 2022. The decision reflects projections that inflation for 2025–2026 will remain within the central bank's target range of 2.5% ± 1%, a stable Rupiah exchange rate, and ongoing efforts to support economic growth. Recent data showed that GDP grew by 5.12%...
U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, economist Stephen Miran, was approved by the Senate in a narrow vote on Monday evening. Miran's appointment to the Fed board was approved in a 48-47 vote, with the confirmation now allowing him to participate in the Fed's September 16-17 meeting. Miran was nominated by Trump to fill a seat abruptly vacated by former Fed governor Adriana Kugler, with his term set to expire in January 2026, when the seat's original term ends. Miran currently serves as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and...
U.S. President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, an appeals court ruled on Monday, allowing her to remain on the central bank's board for a closely-watched policy meeting this week. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in a 2-1 ruling denied the Department of Justice's request to hold an earlier ruling blocking Trump from removing Cook. Monday's ruling came just a week after a district judge also ruled against Cook's firing. U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb had last week ruled that Trump's allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook, which...
After a nine-month pause, the US Federal Reserve is expected to resume its cycle of interest rate cuts this week. The big question is how far will it go? US President Trump has already made it clear that he wants to see cuts to a key interest rate of around 1% (from the current 4.25-4.50%), and probably as quickly as possible. Given the risk of stagflation in the wake of US tariffs, such a sharp easing of monetary policy would be disastrous for the US Dollar (USD), Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Trump wants the Fed to help the Treasury finance the...
The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its latest policy meeting this week with a historic challenge to its leadership pending in the courts and a rushed effort underway to confirm President Donald Trump's nominee to fill an open seat on the central bank's Board of Governors. The Fed is confronting a potentially intense pace of change between Trump's attempted firing of Governor Lisa Cook and the Senate's move to approve his nominee for a separate open seat. The move against Cook is both a first-of-its-kind test of the Fed's independence but also potentially disruptive to how the central bank is...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....