Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
In a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday (August 20th), US President Donald Trump urged Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign, linking to a Bloomberg article titled "Trump Allies Urge Bondi to Investigate Fed's Cook Over Mortgages." "The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHA) is urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over two mortgages. This is the latest in a series of steps by the Trump administration to increase legal scrutiny of Democratic figures and officials." (alg) Source: FXstreet
The US Federal Reserve's decision last month to keep interest rates unchanged sparked a dissenting opinion from two leading central bankers who wanted to lower rates to prevent further labor market weakness. The outcome of the two-day meeting on Wednesday could indicate whether their concerns are being shared by other policymakers, potentially reinforcing expectations that borrowing cost reductions could begin next month. Even less than 48 hours after the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29-30, data from the Labor Department appeared to confirm the...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the annual central bank symposium this week amid growing bets that a rate cut is nearly guaranteed next month. But Powell may defy expectations, refusing to cave as the final battle against inflation looms large, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) Economics warned in a recent note. "The Fed has not won the last inflation battle given recent PPI and CPI readings and the requirement to have much more data given factors like residual seasonality and sampling deficiencies," Scotiabank said. The annual Jackson Hole gathering kicks off with informal...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook and the Fed's review of its policy framework next Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Fed said on Thursday. Powell's speech comes as data showing some impact of tariffs on inflation but the job market is also slowing, a combination fueling expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent when it meets next month. U.S. President Donald Trump wants lower rates and is looking for a replacement for Powell, whose term ends in...
A 50-basis point interest rate cut next month could potentially send the wrong signal to markets about the state of the U.S. labor market, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal. A soft July jobs report, as well as muted inflation data for the month, have fueled increased expectations that the Fed will slash borrowing costs at its September meeting. It would be the first drawdown by the central bank since it paused its policy easing cycle last December. Investors are now all but pricing in a 25-basis point reduction after the Fed's September 16-17...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that short-term interest rates should be 1.5 to 1.75 percentage points lower than current levels, urging the Fed to begin a series of cuts starting with a 50bps reduction in September. Speaking to Bloomberg News television network, he said, "We should probably be 150, 175 lower. I think the committee needs to step back." The Fed's benchmark rate has been at an effective 4.33% since January, after three cuts late last year, as it monitors the economic impact of tariffs. President Trump has also pushed for cuts since early this year,...
Traders are now pricing in a 99% probability of a 25-bps interest rate cut at the September 17, 2025, Federal Reserve meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. This is up from yesterday's probability of 91.4%. Further, traders now see a 1.4% probability of a 50-basis point cut at the upcoming meeting. Previously, there was zero chance of such an outcome. The current federal funds rate is at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. President Donald Trump and his administration have been pressing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a cut for months, saying the high rates are costing the...
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin believes that consumer spending behavior—now increasingly selective and inclined to "trade down"—can mitigate price spikes caused by import tariffs, potentially making future inflationary pressures more moderate than feared. He conveyed this view in a series of speeches and comments this week, including ahead of an event titled "Why the Consumer Matters" scheduled for Wednesday evening WIB at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce. Barkin also signaled caution regarding the possibility of an interest rate cut in September, emphasizing the uncertainty...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....