Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Fed will be in the spotlight this week, as markets are now all but certain that the central bank will slash interest rates at the end of its latest two-day gathering on Wednesday. Underpinned by signs of a softening U.S. labor market, policymakers are widely anticipated to back the first rate cut since an easing cycle was paused in December. Bringing down rates can, in theory, help spur investment and hiring. However, a reduction can risk pushing up inflationary pressures at the same time. Last week, a monthly U.S. consumer price index reading accelerated slightly due to an uptick in...
The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first interest-rate cut this year at its September 16-17 meeting, as it moves to counter a cooling labor market even as inflation remains above target. The anticipated quarter-point reduction may not satisfy President Donald Trump, who wants a bigger cut and has named his White House economic advisor, Stephen Miran, in time to be on the Fed Board at the September meeting, pending Senate confirmation. Here is a look at Fed officials' comments since their last policy meeting, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as shorthand for their...
United States (US) President Donald Trump and his administration have formally asked the federal appeals court to pause a federal order that would allow Lisa Cook to remain at her post at the Federal Reserve (Fed) pending an official probe into accusations of mortgage fraud. According to the Trump administration, potential mortgage fraud is so damaging to the Fed's credibility that Lisa Cook must be removed from the Fed's Board of Governors immediately and should not be allowed to remain in her position without waiting for the results of an official inquiry. Donald Trump, a sitting...
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said the Federal Reserve has scope to lower interest rates because of the weakening U.S. labor market, but the central bank should move cautiously with a close eye on emerging economic data. "Our overall sense is that, given the downside risks to full employment, there is scope for the Fed to begin to lower policy rates," IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack said in a regular briefing. "We also would say that the Fed should proceed cautiously, of course in a data-dependent way, in the coming months." The Fed is expected to lower its benchmark interest...
The Federal Reserve is likely to start a series of interest-rate cuts next week and keep going through the end of the year, traders bet on Wednesday after tamer-than-expected producer price inflation last month calmed worries that price pressures would hold the central bank back from policy easing. Traders stuck to bets the Fed will start with a quarter-point reduction at its meeting next week, and continue with same-sized cuts through year-end, based on pricing of futures contracts that settle to the Fed's policy rate. The producer price index increased 2.6% in August from a year earlier,...
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary benchmark revision to the Establishment Survey Data on Tuesday, September 9. The preliminary revision will cover the 12-month period through March 2025 before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026. "Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release in...
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Thursday that he sees lower risks to inflation as tariffs have driven up price pressures less than expected. "I see on the margin...a reduction of some of the upside risks to inflation" from tariffs, Williams told reporters after speaking at the Economic Club of New York. He noted this reduction comes alongside greater clarity about future economic policy. Williams acknowledged that President Donald Trump's import tax increases are "definitely" affecting price pressures, but added that in terms of tariff pass-throughs to higher...
Several Federal Reserve officials who spoke on Wednesday said labor market worries continue to animate their belief that rate cuts still lie ahead for the central bank. "I've been clear that I think we should be cutting at the next meeting," Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview with CNBC, reiterating the view he has held for some time and led him to dissent at the late July Fed meeting in favor of an easing. "You want to get ahead of having the labor market go down because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast," he said. He added that a rate...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....