Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Fed will meet on October 28-29, 2025. This meeting is crucial because the market still considers the possibility of an interest rate cut, but its direction will be heavily influenced by the September CPI (US inflation) release, which was rescheduled to Friday, October 24 due to the shutdown. Therefore, the Fed is really waiting for the data before making a decision. In his last speech (October 14), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy was "stronger than expected," but the job market was weakening. This means the Fed remains cautious and will determine policy on a...
According to a poll by Reuters, 115 of 117 economists have predicted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in the monetary policy announcement on October 29. For the entire year, the United States (US) Fed will cut its Funds Rate twice more this year, say 83 of 117 economists, 32 say once. The bigger risk to the Fed rate policy by the end of this cycle is that it would set rates too low, say 25 of 33 economists. Despite intensified speculation among economists that the Fed will reduce interest rates in its two upcoming policy...
The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's own economic field reporting, still underway at the self-funded central bank, showed possible cracks in consumer spending, and...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he favors another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of worrisome labor market developments, while a colleague again made the case for an even more aggressive path of cuts. "Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the (Fed's policy committee) should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points" at the end of October, Waller said in a speech given to a Council on Foreign Relations gathering in New York. What comes after that meeting, Waller said,...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he's on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month because of the mixed readings on the state of the job market. "Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that the (Fed's policy committee) should reduce the policy rate another 25 basis points at our meeting that concludes October 29," Waller said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a gathering of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. What comes after that meeting, Waller said, depends...
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The Fed chairman also indicated that the labor market outlook continues to deteriorate, a message that supports investor expectations for another interest rate cut this month. "Our long-held plan is to stop shrinking the balance sheet when foreign exchange reserves are slightly above a level we judge to be consistent with adequate foreign exchange reserve conditions," Powell said Tuesday in prepared remarks for an event with the National Association for Business Economics in...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday delivers his last scheduled remarks before the Fed's next meeting with the economy enjoying stronger-than-expected growth and a recent jump in productivity, but still adjusting to tariff and immigration policies that economists worry could lead to both higher inflation and higher unemployment. Challenging for a central bank responsible for keeping inflation low and employment as high as possible, Powell and his colleagues are also facing a drought of official data amid a U.S. government shutdown that has delayed the September jobs report and...
Global financial markets are moving cautiously following growing concerns about the United States' fiscal policy, which is considered too expansionary. The surge in the budget deficit and rising US government bond yields have led market participants to assess the risks of debt financing as increasing. Investors are beginning to weigh whether this fiscal pressure will limit the Fed's room to cut interest rates more aggressively next year. The US dollar remains strong, while gold prices tend to strengthen slightly due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainty....
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....