Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
A divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month even as many policymakers cautioned that lowering borrowing costs further could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation that has been above the U.S. central bank's 2% target for four and a half years, the minutes from the October 28-29 meeting showed on Wednesday. "Many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate," the minutes stated, while noting some members of that group also would have been satisfied if the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee had left rates steady. Several...
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday doubled down on his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates more quickly, saying: "I'll be honest, I'd love to fire his ass." Trump, speaking at a Saudi Arabia-backed investment forum in Washington, urged his Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, to accelerate the hunt for a successor for Powell. "You've got to work on him, Scott. The only thing Scott's blowing it on is the Fed," Trump said about Bessent, who was in the audience for the event at the Kennedy Center in Washington. "The rates are too high,...
The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve's (Fed) October 28-29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 3.75%-4% at that meeting, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of lowering the fed funds rate by 50 bps, while Kansas Fed President Jeff Schmid preferred no change. Jerome Powell and company opted to reduce the policy rate in OctoberThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps in October, as widely anticipated....
The global economy is entering a fragile phase, with growth slowing, while the shadow of recession has not completely disappeared. The World Bank projects global economic growth of only around 2.3% in 2025, with a "sluggish" recovery in the following years. In the United States, several models now assess the probability of a recession in the range of 20–40% by the end of 2025, indicating that downside risks remain real even though they are not yet a baseline scenario. The IMF also warns that prolonged uncertainty, protectionism, and fiscal vulnerabilities could trigger further shocks to...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday the U.S. central bank needs to "proceed slowly" with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Kansas City Fed event, Jefferson said he agreed the central bank's quarter-percentage-point rate cut last month was appropriate, given increased risks to the job market and the likelihood that inflation risks "have declined somewhat recently." "The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have...
Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to below 50%. As if to underscore the knife-edge decision, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - until now a firm supporter of the Fed's rate cuts - said on Thursday any decision about four weeks ahead of the next policy meeting is "premature." "I have an open mind, but I haven't made a...
Fed increasingly fractured over Dec rate cut Federal Reserve officials are growing increasingly fractured over whether to cut interest rates in December, the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos reported on Tuesday. Timiraos who earned the moniker of the "Fed whisperer," said officials are split over what poses a greater threat to the economy sticky inflation or a sluggish labor market with recent delays in official data, due to a prolonged government shutdown, adding to this friction. The central bank had cut interest rates by 25 basis points in near unanimous decisions in September and...
Global financial market optimism has increased after the latest data indicated a strong chance that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates in December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut is now around 67 to 70 percent. This move is seen as a response to slowing US economic growth and pressure from fiscal uncertainty triggered by the government shutdown that lasted more than a month. Analysts believe that a moderate cut will help maintain economic momentum toward the end of the year without reigniting...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....