Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) officially raised interest rates on Friday to their highest level in three decades. This move is a key part of the BOJ's efforts to end a long era of ultra-loose monetary policy and near-zero borrowing costs. As expected, the BOJ raised the short-term interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% through a unanimous decision by policymakers. This increase underscores the BOJ's commitment to gradually normalizing its monetary policy. The market now awaits BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. local time, for further explanation and clues on the...
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates on Friday to a three-decade high, from 0.5% to 0.75%, signaling readiness for further increases beyond next year. This move demonstrates the BOJ's confidence that sustained wage increases will keep inflation around its 2% target, even as interest rates remain low by global standards. This hike is a key step in Governor Kazuo Ueda's efforts to normalize monetary policy in Japan, which has long been accustomed to extreme easing and near-zero interest rates. Markets are now focused on Ueda's post-meeting press conference for clues...
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that recent inflation data is "good" and could pave the way for more interest rate cuts next year if the trend continues. "My view is that the settling point of rates is a fair bit below where it is today, and that by the end of next year we can, as long as we are hitting our marks on getting inflation back on path to 2%, I think that it's realistic that rates can come down a fair amount," Goolsbee stated in a Fox Business interview. Goolsbee was one of two officials who voted against the Fed's most recent rate cut. He...
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, given the current outlook, according to Reuters. Key points: "The job market is very weak, job growth is not good right now." "The Fed's rate cuts have helped the job market." "2026 could be a better year for the economy, hopefully, that helps the job market." "Inflation is above target but should come down in the next few months." "Inflation expectations are under control." "We don't know yet what AI will do to the job market." "There won't be a reacceleration of inflation." "The job...
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to interview Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday. The interview is said to be part of the selection process for the top position at the US central bank, according to sources quoted by the Wall Street Journal. Waller's name joins a list of candidates Trump has previously interviewed, including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Waller is known as one of the Fed officials more open to policy easing, having supported interest rate cuts last July, citing a weakening labor market. A...
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Monday the U.S. central bank's interest rate cut last week leaves it in a good position to deal with what lies ahead, adding that he sees inflation moderating amid cooling in the job market. "Monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026," Williams said at an event held by the New Jersey Bankers Association in Jersey City. With the recent easing, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy toward neutral." Williams said it is "imperative" to get inflation back...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attributed the surge in inflation above the 2% target to the import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. In a press conference following the FOMC meeting, Powell explained that much of the current "excess" inflation stems not from overheated demand, but from rising prices of imported goods due to higher import duties. The central bank views the effects of these tariffs as a one-time price spike, rather than persistent inflationary pressures, although their impact is still being felt in current data. Powell emphasized that if tariffs are excluded,...
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said that it would start buying short-dated government bonds to help manage market liquidity levels to ensure the central bank retains firm control over its interest rate target system. The technically oriented purchases will commence on December 12, the central bank said as part of the policy announcement associated with its latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. When it begins buying, the initial round will total around $40 billion in Treasury bills. The Fed said in a statement that its buying "will remain elevated for a few months to offset...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....