Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman outlined significant changes to bank supervision and regulation during a speech at the California Bankers Association Bank Presidents Seminar on Wednesday. Bowman, who was appointed by President Trump seven months ago, detailed her approach to "pragmatic supervision and regulation" that aims to preserve safety and soundness while ensuring the U.S. banking system remains efficient, innovative, and accessible. Since June 2025, the Fed has implemented several key reforms, including publishing supervisory operating principles in...
Further changes to the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate will need to be "finely tuned" to incoming data given the risks to both the U.S. central bank's employment and inflation goals, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday. "Both sides of our mandate bear watching. Unemployment remains low on a historic basis but has ticked up. Inflation has come down but remains above target," Barkin told the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce in North Carolina. Interest rates are now "within the range of estimates of neutral," the level that will neither encourage nor discourage...
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin said the monetary policy outlook remains in a fragile balance given the conflicting pressures of rising unemployment and persistently high inflation. Last year's 75 basis point policy easing means interest rates are now within the estimated range for the so-called neutral rate, Barkin said, which he likened to taking out insurance. "But going forward, policy will require very careful assessments that balance progress on each side of our mandate," Barkin said in prepared remarks for an event hosted by the Raleigh Chamber of Commerce on...
The US Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a highly nuanced debate about the current risks facing the US economy, according to minutes from the two-day meeting. Even some of those who supported a rate cut acknowledged that "the decision was carefully balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," given the different risks facing the US economy, according to minutes from the meeting released on Tuesday. In economic projections released after the December 9-10 meeting, six officials explicitly opposed a cut, and two...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be held tomorrow morning, is a major focus for global financial markets. Investors are awaiting new guidance from the US central bank regarding the direction of interest rates and future economic conditions. Although there is little likelihood of a change in interest rates in the near future, the tone of the Fed's discussions will significantly influence market direction. The FOMC's primary focus will be assessing persistent inflation and the slowing US labor market. The Fed will also evaluate whether current monetary policy is...
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that achieving 2% inflation is getting closer, although real inflation remains low. Ueda emphasized that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economic and inflation outlook supports such a move, leaving open the possibility of further policy changes. With CPI inflation continuing to rise moderately, Japan has the potential to experience sustained wage and price increases. Ueda also mentioned the decreasing likelihood of the Japanese economy returning to a "zero norm" condition, where wages and prices are stagnant. This could...
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change U.S. interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past few months, the report added. Hammack told the Journal that the Fed didn't need to change its benchmark interest rate, currently in a range between...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....