Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the outlook for the labor market and inflation faces risks, reiterating his view that policymakers will likely face a difficult road as they consider further interest rate cuts. "Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment are tilted to the downside—a challenging situation," Powell said Tuesday in prepared remarks for an event at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island. "These two-sided risks mean there's no risk-free path." Powell offered no indication whether he would support a rate cut at...
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision last week was not as "dovish" as it first seemed, analysts at Barclays have argued. Along with a 25-basis point reduction to the Fed's target range for rates to 4% to 4.25%, the meeting included fresh projections which showed that officials are anticipating another half percentage point in rate cuts to help stem a downturn in the labor market. However, seven of the 19 estimates provided by policymakers in their closely-watched "dot plot" of forecasts saw fewer reductions this year, with one even calling for rates to have stayed at their prior...
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said interest rates are too high and proposed aggressive cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market. In his first policy speech since being sworn in as governor last week, Miran outlined the reasons why the neutral interest rate—where the policy rate neither stimulates nor burdens the economy—has fallen. That rate, which was likely overestimated in the past, has also been lowered recently by tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policy, Miran said. This means interest rates should be much lower to prevent economic damage, he...
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week was not as dovish as some market participants seem to have expected, according to analysts at Yardeni Research. But in a note to clients, the analysts said that "relatively muted" gains in stocks after the Fed's decision was an indication that the move had already been priced in by markets. The Fed lowered its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% last Wednesday, delivering its first rate reduction since December. Updated projections released after the meeting showed a majority of policymakers...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said that economic data since the August meeting has been slightly better than expected. Although inflation has fallen significantly and the labor market is approaching full capacity, Bullock emphasized that the bank will continue to monitor upcoming economic data. "We've made real progress in lowering inflation, but our job is to ensure it remains within the target range for a sustained period," she said.Bullock also noted that although labor market conditions have eased slightly, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate,...
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced on Friday that the board members decided to leave the short-term interest rate target unchanged in the range of 0.4%- 0.5% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting. The decision matched the market expectations. The Japanese central bank maintained the pause in its rate-hiking cycle for the fourth consecutive meeting, following a 25 basis points (bps) hike in January. Source: FXstreet
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday stateside cut interest rates by a quarter point, bringing the overnight funds rate range between 4% and 4.25%. That move was fully priced in markets so traders got what they expected. It was a near-unanimous decision by the Fed. Only Stephen Miran, picked by U.S. President Donald Trump and confirmed to the Fed board just on Monday, dissented and voted for a half-point cut. Prior to the meeting, there was chatter that governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller both of whom were also appointed by Trump might advocate for a larger cut. While Fed...
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday and indicated it would continue lowering borrowing costs through the end of the year, as policymakers responded to signs of weakness in the labor market. The move received broad internal support, including from most of President Donald Trump's appointees to the central bank. Only Stephen Miran, who was sworn in as Fed chairman on Tuesday and is on leave as head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, dissented from the half-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs. This rate cut, along with...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....