Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Tuesday laid out in greater detail her opposition to President Donald Trump's bid to remove her from office, saying it was too late to fire her for mortgage information she disclosed during her confirmation process. In a filing in U.S. District Court, Cook said she listed mortgages on three properties on forms submitted to the White House and U.S. Senate in the vetting process for her appointment to the Fed in 2022. Any inconsistencies were known when she was confirmed and cannot give Trump grounds to fire her now, she said. Trump and Federal Housing...
Global stocks fell and long-dated bond yields in Europe hit multiyear highs on Tuesday as investors grew increasingly worried about the state of finances in countries around the world, while the dollar gained, and gold touched a fresh record high. A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of President Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, although the court allowed for the tariffs to stay in place until October 14 to give the administration a chance to file an appeal with the Supreme Court. U.S. manufacturing also contracted for a sixth straight month in August as factories...
Nearly 600 economists signed an open letter Tuesday warning that President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook threatens the central bank's independence and erodes trust in a key pillar of the U.S. financial system. "Good economic policy requires credible monetary institutions. Credible monetary institutions, in turn, require the independence of the Federal Reserve," they wrote in the letter addressed to Trump, members of Congress and the American public. "We stand with Governor Cook and with the institutional safeguards that have long underpinned American...
Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams indicated on Wednesday that interest rates could decrease at some point, but emphasized that upcoming economic data will determine if a rate cut is appropriate at the September 16-17 meeting. "Every meeting is, from my perspective, live" for a change in the benchmark policy rate, Williams stated during a CNBC interview. He added that "risks are more in balance. We are going to just have to see how the data play out." Before the next Federal Reserve meeting, policymakers will receive fresh jobs data and new consumer price inflation...
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will file a lawsuit to prevent President Donald Trump from firing her, a lawyer for the embattled central bank official said on Tuesday, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight over the White House's effort to shape U.S. monetary policy. "His attempt to fire her, based solely on a referral letter, lacks any factual or legal basis. We will be filing a lawsuit challenging this illegal action," Cook's lawyer, prominent Washington attorney Abbe Lowell, said in a statement. The statement was issued a day after Trump said he would fire Cook, the...
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan mused about making key policy adjustments at the Fed on Monday, stressing the need for more effective policy communication.The US has more room to reduce reserves.Responding to banks' increased short-run demand for reserves is a recipe for an ever-expanding central bank balance sheet.As reserve levels drop, preferable for the Fed to seek to meet lower long-run bank demand for reserves rather than the higher short-run demand.Fed balance sheet should hold primarily treasuries in the long run.I was encouraged to see the use of the...
The US economy is slowing, according to a monthly index released Monday, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will cut interest rates next month. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell slightly to minus 0.19 in July from a downwardly revised minus 0.18 in June. A reading below zero indicates slower growth than the long-term average. Employment indicators remained negative on the index, a fresh sign of fragility in the US labor market. This weakness is one of the main reasons for a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting next month. Central bank Chairman Jerome Powell last week...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....