Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting suggest policymakers are leaning toward further rate cuts this year. While most officials backed the quarter-point reduction, the discussion reflected growing concern about labour market risks and a more balanced inflation outlook. The tone overall was cautious but pointed to a continued easing bias. Most participants judged it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025. Some participants noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be particularly restrictive. Those participants...
The minutes of the United States Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on September 16-17 will be released on Wednesday at 6:00 PM GMT. The US central bank decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4%-4.25% at this meeting, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran preferred to cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps. Jerome Powell and co. decided to cut the benchmark interest rate in September The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps in September, in line with widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed...
Systematic hedge funds have lost money every day since October began, according to a Goldman Sachs client note. These speculators, whose algorithms ride market trends until they peter out and who use market signals rather than views on the economic aspects of the company stocks they trade, have printed negative returns each day since the start of October, the note released late on Monday showed. As of Monday, systematic or quantitative hedge funds were down around 1.8% for the month so far in one of the worst four-day trading returns in almost two years, said Goldman. Losses stemmed from...
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan struck a nervous tone on Friday, warning that despite a rapidly-weakening labor market, a lot of potential policy moves could accidentally spark another round of renewed inflationary pressures. Tariffs have been contributing to inflation.I'm worried about non-housing services inflation that's been elevated and stuck there. There are both upside and downside risks to my inflation outlook.If labor market were to slow more than anticipate, could see more disinflation than currently expect. The risks that tariff effects are more...
The so-called "neutral" stance for U.S. interest rates is likely to be closer to where the Federal Reserve has currently set borrowing costs, rather than where the central bank expects it to be in the coming years, according to analysts at Yardeni Research. In a note, the strategists argued that the neutral level -- a theoretical mark which neither helps nor hinders economic activity -- is hovering around 4%, roughly in line with where the Fed has placed rates. Fed officials, on the other hand, have estimated that neutral rate is 3% and have laid out projections to dip down to this level...
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member and Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Sarah Breeden, stated on Tuesday that she believes the recent "bump" in inflation won't lead to further, long-term inflationary pressures. However, Breeden warned that consumer-level inflation expectations have risen dramatically, and is a cause for concern.The recent "hump" in inflation is unlikely to lead to additional inflationary pressure. Underlying disinflationary process looks to be on track but policymakers face a balancing act. Significant rise in household inflation...
In a statement after the September policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said: "With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the Board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions. The Board judged that it was appropriate to remain...
Federal Reserve (Fed Bank of New York President John C. Williams hit the newswires on Monday, expressing his general cautiousness toward further interest rate cuts but acknowledging that current Fed rate policy is tilted more toward the restrictive side at a time when the clear risk to underlying economic data appears to be heavier toward labor market weakness. Monetary policy continues to be restrictive, we're still in a position to put downward pressure on inflation.We still have a ways to go to get to 2% inflation goal.The Fed has a balancing act, underlying inflation moderating.The Fed...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....