Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained why policymakers had decided to lower the Federal Funds Target Range (FFTR) to 3.75%–4.00% after the October meeting and took questions from reporters about the move. Chief Powell's press conference takeawaysData available suggests the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting. Prior to shutdown, data showed the economy may be on a firmer trajectory. Shutdown will weigh on economic activity while it persists and should reverse when it ends. Labour demand has clearly...
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The move followed a similar cut in September, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Policymakers cited increasing downside risks to employment in recent months while inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Governor Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50bps and Governor Schmid dissented in favor of holding rates steady. In addition, the...
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and publish the Monetary Policy Statement following the October policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering it to the range of 3.75%-4%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors are fully pricing in the 25 bps reduction in October and see about a 95% probability of one more 25 bps cut at the last policy meeting of the year in December. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published in...
The Fed is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps at its October 2025 meeting, bringing its target range to 3.75%–4.00%. A similar cut is expected in September, which would lower borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Markets will be closely watching the December guidance, although policymakers are not expected to provide significant new insights. The policy backdrop has become increasingly uncertain amid the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic indicators. Among the limited data available, the CPI report showed headline inflation edged up...
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said there was a long list of people who could take over the Federal Reserve, slamming current chairman Jerome Powell as the central bank prepared to meet this week. "We have an incompetent head of the Fed... we got a bad Fed guy, but he'll be out of there in a few months, and we'll get somebody new," Trump told business leaders at a dinner in Tokyo during his week-long trip to Asia. Powell's term ends in May. The Republican president added that he had wanted Scott Bessent to take over the U.S. central bank but that his Treasury chief declined: "I'm...
Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to reduce U.S. short-term borrowing costs this week by a quarter of a percentage point for the second time this year as they look to prevent further slowing in the labor market. Odds are it won't be the last of the series. Climbing unemployment insurance claims suggest that labor market demand continues to cool, even as the government shutdown delays publication of most official economic statistics, including the unemployment rate, last estimated at 4.3% in August. Milder-than-expected inflation readings, including last week's report that...
Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to reduce U.S. short-term borrowing costs this week by a quarter of a percentage point for the second time this year as they look to prevent further slowing in the labor market. Odds are it won't be the last of the series. Climbing unemployment insurance claims suggest that labor market demand continues to cool, even as the government shutdown delays publication of most official economic statistics, including the unemployment rate, last estimated at 4.3% in August. Milder-than-expected inflation readings, including last week's report that...
Following the final October meeting (October 28–29, 2025), the FOMC calendar still lists December 9–10, 2025. This means the Fed could technically still act once more this year. Market and economist expectations, according to surveys and money market prices, still position a high probability of a cut in December in addition to October. Several major economists also still project two cuts before the end of the year. Powell hinted that monetary policy tightening could end within a few months. This is a looser tone and is compatible with further policy easing if accompanied by supportive...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....