Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Investors cheered Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address, which gave a green light to buy risky assets on the hope the central bank is ready to cut rates, but took his dovish message with a note of caution as they see a risk of stagflation ahead and worry markets are over-optimistic. In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. The speech on Friday came amid...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top White House ally. "I'll fire her if she doesn't resign," Trump told reporters on Friday. The comments intensify Trump's pressure campaign against the US central bank, which he has bashed for months over its decision to hold interest rates steady. He's attacked Fed Chair Jerome Powell over monetary policy decisions as well as cost overruns for a major renovation of the...
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell assessed that the US economy remains resilient: the job market is near its maximum, inflation has fallen well from its peak, but the balance of risks is shifting. In his speech on "Monetary Policy and the Fed's Framework Review" in Jackson Hole, he stated that current policy remains restrictive and that changes in the outlook could require policy adjustments. Powell outlined new challenges this year: higher tariffs in many trading partners, a slowdown in immigration that is depressing labor force growth, and changes in fiscal and regulatory policies. He emphasized...
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday at 14:00 GMT. Market participants will be closely watching Powell's speech for new clues on the direction of monetary policy, particularly regarding the timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut this year and the potential scope and timing of subsequent rate cuts. Powell's remarks are expected to roil markets, triggering intense volatility around the US dollar (USD), as the world's most influential central...
Fed Chair Powell's looming speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium will be the next catalyst for the U.S. dollar moves, says Joe Capurso, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Still, don't expect Powell to give a clear signal in either direction. He is likely to keep his options open and wait for more data, Capurso says. But if Powell signals openness to an interest rate cut, expect the market to more fully price a September cut and the USD to fall modestly. A September cut is currently priced at about 70% which sets a high bar for Powell to 'out‑dove' the market, he...
Bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September have dropped significantly over the past week, as markets prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Last week, traders were pricing in a 99 percent chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the next Fed meeting. That is now down to 71.5 percent, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. The drop comes amid hotter-than-expected producer inflation data and some hawkish commentary from some Fed members. After a modest 0.3% July CPI number last Tuesday, last Thursday's red-hot monthly PPI of...
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, as expected, but two governors dissented in favor of a cut the first such dual dissent since 1993. Policymakers observed that, while fluctuations in net exports continue to influence the data, recent indicators point to a moderation in economic activity in H1 contrasting with earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace'. The Fed also said that the unemployment rate remains low while inflation remains somewhat elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists. The Fed reinforced that...
According to the FOMC Minutes, the two Federal Reserve policymakers who disagreed with the central bank's decision to keep interest rates the same last month were not joined by other policymakers in calling for lower rates at that meeting. Key Quotes Almost all participants at the Fed's July 29–30 meeting viewed it as appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Participants noted it would take time to have more clarity on the magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs' effects on inflation. Participants assessed the impact of tariffs had become more...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....