Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to raising interest rates if underlying inflation nears its 2% target. While core consumer inflation has stayed above 2% for three years, demand-driven pressures remain subdued. Ueda told parliament the BoJ is keeping real interest rates negative to support stable, sustained inflation. "Once we have more conviction that underlying inflation will approach or hover around 2%, we will continue to raise rates," he said. The BoJ ended its decade-long stimulus last year, lifting short-term rates to 0.5% in January as...
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) discount rate meetings from April 7, 28, and May 8 revealed that policymakers are increasingly uneasy about the coming economic impacts, mostly from U.S. trade policy. While overall economic conditions are stable, tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on business operators, who are preparing contingency plans and slowing their investment and spending rates. Key highlights Overall, central bank directors noted considerable uncertainty about the outlook. While most directors described current economic conditions as generally stable, they also...
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, expressed his belief on Monday that the U.S. central bank will be able to reduce short-term borrowing costs once the uncertainty caused by tariff policies is resolved. During a webcast interview with the Quad Cities Regional Business Journal in Davenport, Iowa, Goolsbee stated that if the economy can navigate through this challenging period, the dual mandate looks promising. The dual mandate of the Fed is a reference to its two primary objectives: full employment and price stability. Goolsbee further stated his ongoing belief...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly was on the news Thursday night, noting that the White House's unbalanced trade policies are keeping the Fed in a wait-and-see mode as policymakers prepare to see what kind of impact on the U.S. economy high import tariffs will have on the broader economy. Key highlights The labor market is in solid shape. Workers are worried about inflation. We're not going to get to 2% inflation this year. We're actually making progress on inflation. I see the balance in the labor market that we need for 2% inflation. Bond yields show the...
According to a statement by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, where the head of the Fed reiterated that the Fed's decisions on monetary policy are based on trackable data from the US economy. Donald Trump has been writhing on social media for months, desiring sharp rate cuts from the Fed as a low rate environment tends to make federal debt cheaper, something that the Trump administration's budget policies will add plenty of over the next ten years. Fed highlights Fed Chair Powell met with Trump at White House...
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday (29) that they could return to a situation where interest rates could fall if tariffs are avoided through a deal or otherwise, according to Reuters. "If politics drives interest rates, inflation will come back," Goolsbee added, further noting that sometimes central banks have to do what the political apparatus doesn't like. "Stagflation is the worst case scenario for central banks; that's not what we're facing now." "This is the direction of stagflation, but it's not stagflation." Market reaction The US Dollar...
Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments, minutes from their latest policy meeting showed Wednesday. Policymakers judged the risks of both higher unemployment and inflation had risen since their previous meeting in March, primarily due to the potential impact of tariffs. Such a scenario could pit the Fed's goals of stable prices and maximum employment against one another. "Participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its May 6-7 meeting on Wednesday (5/28). At that time, policymakers decided to maintain the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by market participants. The Federal Reserve (Fed) took a more aggressive stance earlier in the year, amid concerns about the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on economic progress and inflation. Officials not only decided to keep rates on hold, but they also gave no hints about future rate cuts, maintaining the wait-and-see stance they took...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....