Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision and release its revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as the dot plot, after its March policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to leave policy settings unchanged for the second straight meeting, after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.25%-4.5% in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors see little chance of a rate cut in March while pricing in about a 30% chance of a 25 bps cut in May. Therefore, the...
The Bank of Japan kept its key policy rate unchanged, as authorities continued to assess the potential impact on the global economy from escalating trade tensions. Governor Kazuo Ueda's board voted to keep the policy rate at 0.5% Wednesday at the end of a two-day gathering, according to its statement. The result was in line with the expectations of all 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank added a reference to the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies to its list of risks to the outlook. The stand-pat decision comes as domestic...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump's aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates. With markets nervous over Trump's proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty. The White House "is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation," he said in a speech for the...
Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump's tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024. In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter...
The Bank of Japan could hike interest rates by as soon as May, ING analysts said in a Monday note, as gross domestic product data showed the economy grew much more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. A May rate hike could come especially if springtime wage negotiations between major Japanese labor unions and employers yields another year of bumper hikes. Strong wage hikes in 2024 were a key motivator of the BOJ's ongoing rate hike cycle, as Japanese private consumption and inflation picked up sharply through most of 2024. The BOJ expects this trend to continue in 2025,...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank has not been cut off from any data it needs to do its work. Speaking before a House panel as the Trump administration has been stripping government websites from various data sets, Powell he wasn't aware of losing anything the Fed needs, while saying he'd speak up if issues emerged. Powell was also asked about outside access to critical systems the Fed and the Treasury Department use to process government payments and Powell noted access to these tools is done "very carefully." Many observers have grown concerned about...
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), repeated that they do not need to be in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy in his prepared remarks for delivery on the first day of his testimony on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. "Policy is well-positioned to deal with risks, uncertainties." "We can maintain policy restraint for longer if economy remains strong and inflation does not move toward 2%." "We can ease policy if labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more quickly than expected." "The US is...
The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to take a measured approach in adjusting its monetary policy, with Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts predicting that the central bank will hold off on more aggressive rate cuts until mid-year. While the BoE recently reduced the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, the decision exposed a rare divergence among policymakers. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a more substantial 50-basis-point cut, signaling a growing faction within the committee that favors a more proactive approach to easing. Despite this dissent, Barclays...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....