Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2025, in line with expectations. Policymakers noted that although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. In addition, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists. The Fed reinforced that additional adjustments to the target range for...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the U.S. central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures. "It makes sense to cut the FOMC's policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now," Waller told a gathering of the Money Marketeers of New York University. "I see the hard and soft data on economic activity and the labor market as consistent: The economy is still growing, but its momentum...
The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, a record of policymakers' most recent meeting showed. "While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation," the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June 17-18 meeting said. New rate projections released...
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumed two days of congressional testimony on Wednesday, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee after scrutiny before a House panel the day before that focused on the Fed's concerns that the Trump administration's tariff plans will raise inflation. Powell's prepared testimony submitted to the Senate was the same as that delivered to the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed said as the Senate hearing began. Even with recent inflation more moderate than expected, the central bank expects rising import taxes will lead to higher inflation...
The Bank of England kept its key interest rate on hold at 4.25% during its Thursday meeting, with economists expecting the central bank to wait until August before it cuts again. Six out of nine of the BOE's monetary policy committee opted to hold rates with three opting for a 25-basis-points cut. "Underlying UK GDP [gross domestic product] growth appears to have remained weak, and the labour market has continued to loosen, leading to clearer signs that a margin of slack has opened up over time," the central bank said in a statement. "Measures of pay growth have continued to moderate and,...
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 0% in June 2025, as expected, setting borrowing costs at zero for the first time since negative rates in late 2022. The move came amid easing inflationary pressures and a weakening global economic outlook. Consumer prices in Switzerland fell by 0.1% in May, marking the first decline in four years, mainly driven by lower prices in tourism and oil products. The SNB now projects average inflation at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027. Swiss GDP also posted strong growth in the first quarter of 2025, partly supported...
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it left the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% following the June policy meeting. This decision came in line with the market expectation. Source: Fxstreet
Markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold today. Recent data has surprised in a dovish direction, but projections and the dot plot will shift more hawkish. The ‘hard' data from the projections likely gives a better signal of the Fed's rate trajectory than the ‘soft' data from Powell's press conference, ABN AMRO's economist Rogier Quaedvlieg reports. Fed to hold rates, but dot plot set for hawkish shift "Tonight the Fed will keep rates on hold. In the press conference, Powell will likely repeat the messaging of last time: they will consider the totality of the Trump administration's...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....