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FEDERAL RESERVE

Divided Fed sparks surge in rate options hedging as policy uncertainty lingers

Saturday, 29 November 2025 02:37 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically...

US rate cut almost fully priced in for December

Thursday, 27 November 2025 23:04 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25bp Fed cut in December, influenced by dovish Fed chatter and signs of a slowing US economy, while the US Dollar (USD) shows mixed reactions. Kevin Hassett seen as dovish Fed chair contender"On Friday, I discussed the correction in interest rate expectations...

Good chance Trump may unveil Fed pick by Christmas, Bessent says

Wednesday, 26 November 2025 22:40 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday he was concluding a second round of interviews later in the day for a new U.S. Federal Reserve leader, and there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is...

Fed Chair Powell’s allies to open path for Dec rate cut

Tuesday, 25 November 2025 23:36 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push through an interest rate cut during the central bank’s December 9-10 meeting, the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos reported on Monday. But the decision is likely to be contested in an increasingly divided...

Fed’s Goolsbee uneasy about rate cuts, says nothing wrong with dissenting

Friday, 21 November 2025 11:31 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said he is uneasy about cutting interest rates in the face of too-high inflation that’s steady at best and by some measures getting worse, remarks that signal a reluctance to support a third straight reduction in borrowing costs next...

Fed cut rates even as many of its policymakers worried about inflation, minutes show

Thursday, 20 November 2025 10:49 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

A divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month even as many policymakers cautioned that lowering borrowing costs further could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation that has been above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target for four and a half years, the minutes from the October 28-29...

Trump says he would love to fire Fed chair Powell

Thursday, 20 November 2025 08:20 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday doubled down on his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates more quickly, saying: "I’ll be honest, I’d love to fire his ass." Trump, speaking at a Saudi Arabia-backed investment forum in Washington, urged his...

Between Inflation, Recession, and the Global Economy

Wednesday, 19 November 2025 05:56 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

The global economy is entering a fragile phase, with growth slowing, while the shadow of recession has not completely disappeared. The World Bank projects global economic growth of only around 2.3% in 2025, with a "sluggish" recovery in the following years. In the United States, several models...

Fed needs to move slowly with further rate cuts, Jefferson says

Tuesday, 18 November 2025 05:35 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday the U.S. central bank needs to "proceed slowly" with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Kansas City Fed...

Fed’s December rate cut looks increasingly like a toss-up

Friday, 14 November 2025 22:26 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in...

Fed increasingly fractured over Dec rate cut

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 23:07 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Fed increasingly fractured over Dec rate cut Federal Reserve officials are growing increasingly fractured over whether to cut interest rates in December, the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos reported on Tuesday. Timiraos who earned the moniker of the “Fed whisperer,” said officials are split...

Chances of the Fed Cutting Interest Rates in December Reach 70%

Tuesday, 11 November 2025 22:55 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Global financial market optimism has increased after the latest data indicated a strong chance that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will cut interest rates in December 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut is now around 67 to 70...

Fed’s Daly says slowing job growth due to weaker worker demand

Tuesday, 11 November 2025 02:13 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Slowing payroll growth in the U.S. is more likely the result of weaker demand for workers rather than reduced labor force from tightened immigration policies, according to San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly. In an essay published Monday, Daly noted that slowing wage growth...

Fed’s Goolsbee: lack of inflation data argues for going slow.

Friday, 7 November 2025 05:25 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday said the lack of official data on inflation during the government shutdown "accentuates" his caution about cutting interest rates further. "I lean more to the, when it’s foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down" Goolsbee...

Not the Final Cut, There's Still Room for the Fed to Cut Rates in December

Friday, 24 October 2025 02:14 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Following the final October meeting (October 28–29, 2025), the FOMC calendar still lists December 9–10, 2025. This means the Fed could technically still act once more this year. Market and economist expectations, according to surveys and money market prices, still position a high probability of a...

Fed’s Waller on board for an October rate cut, as Miran again presses for aggressive easing.

Saturday, 18 October 2025 00:29 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he favors another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting later this month because of worrisome labor market developments, while a colleague again made the case for an even more aggressive path of cuts. "Based on all...

Fed’s Waller favors 25-basis-point rate cut in October amid job market worries

Friday, 17 October 2025 03:05 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he’s on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting later this month because of the mixed readings on the state of the job market. "Based on all of the data we have on the labor market, I believe that...

Fed’s Powell addresses economy pulled between risks to growth, jobs and prices

Wednesday, 15 October 2025 01:50 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday delivers his last scheduled remarks before the Fed’s next meeting with the economy enjoying stronger-than-expected growth and a recent jump in productivity, but still adjusting to tariff and immigration policies that economists worry could lead to...

Fed Minutes tilt dovish as policymakers weigh further cuts

Thursday, 9 October 2025 10:50 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting suggest policymakers are leaning toward further rate cuts this year. While most officials backed the quarter-point reduction, the discussion reflected growing concern about labour market risks and a more balanced inflation...

Systematic hedge funds hit with daily losses in October, says Goldman Sachs

Wednesday, 8 October 2025 05:54 WIB | Fiscal & monetary

Systematic hedge funds have lost money every day since October began, according to a Goldman Sachs client note. These speculators, whose algorithms ride market trends until they peter out and who use market signals rather than views on the economic aspects of the company stocks they trade, have...

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