Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
China's trade surplus roared above $1 trillion in November for the first time ever, despite the ongoing global trade war that has resulted in a steep drop in exports to the U.S. In the first 11 months this year, China's overall exports grew 5.4% compared to the same period in 2024 while imports fell 0.6%, taking its trade surplus to $1.076 trillion this year as of November, up 21.6% year on year. The move come even as China's U.S.-bound goods fell for an eighth straight month despite a recent trade deal between the two economies, even as overall exports surpassed market expectations in...
US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's response to Washington's peace proposal to end the war with Russia. According to Trump, Kyiv hasn't moved quickly enough to review the proposal, even though it was sent just hours earlier. He even said that "the Ukrainian people like" the plan, but the president doesn't. Meanwhile, Trump claimed that Russia is "fine" with the proposal's contents, giving the impression that he is more optimistic about Moscow's response than Kyiv. This stance contrasts with Trump's tone toward Russian President...
President Donald Trump announced a new peace pact between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which he linked to US access to critical minerals. At a meeting in Washington, Trump claimed his administration had "succeeded where many others have failed," calling this the eighth war he has ended in less than a year. However, the reality on the ground is far more complicated, as fighting in eastern Congo continues despite the signing of the previous peace agreement. The agreement is not just about a ceasefire; it also concerns the mineral trade. The agreement grants US companies access...
US bonds fell after jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 2022, one of the last readings on the health of the US labor market before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. Yields rose two to four basis points across all tenors, led by the five-year Treasury. The 10-year Treasury yield was just below its session high of around 4.10%. Labor Department data released Thursday showed that applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to their lowest level in more than three years, signaling that most companies are retaining workers. The day before, ADP...
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance went down to 191K for the week ending November 29. The latest print came in short of initial estimates (220K) and was lower than the previous week's 218K (revised from 216K). Additionally, the 4-week moving average decreased by 9.5K, bringing it to 214.75K from the revised average of the previous week. The report indicated a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.3%, with Continuing Jobless Claims shrinking by 4K to...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday predicted that the administration still will be able to implement its tariff agenda regardless of whether it prevails in a pending case before the Supreme Court. Repeating assertions he had made prior to the high court hearing a month ago, Bessent cited several sections of 1962 Trade Act that give the president sweeping powers over import duties. "We can recreate the exact tariff structure with sections 301, with 232, with 122," he said during an onstage interview at The New York Times DealBook Summit. Asked by host Andrew Ross Sorkin the...
Private businesses in the US cut 32K jobs in November 2025, following an upwardly revised 47K gain in October, and compared to forecasts of a 10K rise. Hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing (-18K), professional and business services (-26K), information (-20K), construction (-9K) and financial activities (-9K). On the other hand, job gains occurred in education and health services (33K), leisure and hospitality (13K), natural resources and mining (8K) and trade, transportation and utilities (1K). Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain...
Ekonom terkenal Scott Bessent memprediksi bahwa Amerika Serikat kemungkinan akan mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat namun inflasi tetap rendah pada 2026. Menurut Bessent, faktor seperti harga energi yang diperkirakan turun, kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang bijaksana, serta pengaturan pasar yang stabil, bisa membantu menjaga inflasi tetap terkendali sambil mendorong ekonomi tumbuh. Prediksi ini tentu menjadi perhatian investor, karena inflasi adalah salah satu indikator utama bagi Federal Reserve (The Fed) dalam menentukan kebijakan suku bunga. Inflasi rendah biasanya membuat The Fed...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....