Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Deutsche Bank forecasts the U.S. dollar will weaken approximately 6% on a trade-weighted basis by the end of 2026, according to a new report released by the bank's foreign exchange strategists. The bank's analysis indicates that the "Trump shock" to the dollar has concluded, but several fundamental factors still point to dollar weakness ahead. These include current valuations, balance-of-payments dynamics, and monetary-policy cycles, which collectively support a bearish outlook for the greenback. Deutsche Bank specifically highlights the widening U.S. current account deficit as a key...
Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 6,000 from the previous week to 216,000 on the period ending November 22nd, a third consecutive drop to tie the lowest level since February, and below market expectations of an increase to 225,000. In the meantime, continuing claims tose by 7,000 from the downwardly revised value in the first week of November. The results continued to reflect a low magnitude of new unemployment claims in the US economy, although elevated levels of outstanding insurance suggest a slowdown in hiring. Initial claims filed by former employees of the Federal government...
The US government posted a higher deficit of $284 billion for October in a report delayed by the recent federal government shutdown, reflecting record tariff revenue offset by the shift of some November benefit payments to last month's data, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. Budget results for the first month of fiscal 2026 were delayed by the 43-day shutdown of many federal agencies, which caused delays in some payments, such as government employee salaries, a Treasury official said. Last month's deficit rose $27 billion, or 10%, from the $257 billion deficit recorded in October 2024,...
Retail Sales in the US rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in September to $733.3 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 0.6% increase recorded in August and came in weaker than the market expectation of 0.4%. "Total sales for the July 2025 through September 2025 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago," the press release read. "The July 2025 to August 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from August 2025, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5...
US Producer Prices rose 2.7% in September from a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). That was broadly in line with expectations, though slightly above August's 2.6% uptick. Stripping out food and energy, core Producer Prices were up 2.9% over the year, above the 2.7% forecast and up from the previous 2.8% increase. Source: Fxstreet
Back-to-back calls between U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of Japan and China have so far done little to defuse the diplomatic spat occurring between Beijing and Tokyo, as experts warn that a de-escalation of the crisis remains nowhere in sight. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi spoke with Trump on Tuesday, hours after he held a separate call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Takaichi, in remarks to the media after her call with Trump, said that she discussed China relations during their conversation. The flurry of calls followed a dispute triggered by Takaichi's recent...
Chinese President Xi Jinping pressed U.S. President Donald Trump on the status of the self-governing island of Taiwan and urged his counterpart to maintain better relations, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Xi told Trump that Taiwan's return to China was an important part of the post-World War II international order, according to a statement from the call. The Chinese leader also said the two countries should maintain the positive momentum generated during their meeting last month in South Korea and expand cooperation, the statement said. The two leaders also discussed Russia's...
U.S. economic growth will increase slightly next year but employment gains will remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve will slow any further rate cuts, economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics said in the group's year-end forecast survey. The survey of 42 professional forecasters, conducted from November 3 to 11, found the median outlook was for growth of 2%, up from 1.8% in a prior October survey and in contrast to a growth rate of only 1.3% projected in June. Increased personal spending and business investment are seen driving growth higher, offset by what...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....