Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
A five-hour meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, in the Kremlin, failed to produce a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin confirmed that no compromise had been reached and much work remained. The talks lasted until midnight, and some of the US proposals were deemed inappropriate by Russia. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top aide, said the meeting was constructive and opened up opportunities for US-Russia economic cooperation, although a direct meeting between Putin and Trump is not yet...
US President Donald Trump has hinted that Kevin Hassett, the current chairman of the National Economic Council, whom Donald Trump appointed to the position, is a likely choice from the shortlist of candidates for Fed Chair. Hassett's tenure in economic policy includes brief stints as a professor of economics and an economist in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Fed's Board of Governors. Neither position lasted more than five years. Hassett's most notable economic contributions were as a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he wrote a weekly opinion piece for the...
Vladimir Putin warned that Russia might consider attacking ships of countries supporting Ukraine if the surge in attacks on Moscow's tanker fleet continues, according to local media reports. There have been at least nine attacks on Russian commercial vessels, mostly tankers, in the past year. Most perpetrators have not claimed responsibility for the incidents, although a source familiar with the matter said Ukraine was behind two attacks last week. There has been a significant spike in the past week, with four similar incidents. "What the Ukrainian armed forces are doing now is piracy,"...
The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than this year, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Over the past one-year period, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currency pairs, has edged lower by more than 6%. A range of policy moves under U.S. President Donald Trump have dented the dollar throughout 2025, including the White House's sweeping tariffs, fears over the sustainability of elevated U.S. government debt levels, and worries over the independence of the Federal Reserve. In a note, the Deutsche Bank analysts...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 48.2 in November 2025, the lowest in four months, compared to 48.7 in September and below forecasts of 48.6. The reading showed that the manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month and at a faster pace, led by pullbacks in supplier deliveries (49.3 vs 54.2), new orders (47.4 vs 49.4) and employment (44 vs 46), with 67% of panelists (the same as October) indicating that managing head counts is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring. Also, price pressures intensified (58.5 vs 58) and backlog of orders decreased...
US President Donald Trump has rekindled economic debate after stating that his administration could eliminate the income tax entirely and replace it with revenue from import tariffs. According to Trump, increasing tariffs on foreign goods could generate significant government revenue, making it a primary source of federal revenue without burdening citizens with income taxes. This statement immediately drew scrutiny from economists and market participants. Some considered the idea overly ambitious, given that income taxes are one of the US government's largest sources of revenue. Relying on...
Trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was halted on Friday (November 28th) following a cooling issue at one of its data centers. "Due to a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data center, our markets are currently suspended," a CME spokesperson said in an emailed statement early Friday morning. "Our support team is working to resolve this issue and will update clients with pre-open details as soon as they are available." The CME the world's largest exchange operator by market value trades futures and options contracts for a variety of asset classes, including agricultural commodities,...
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday (November 27) that a draft outline of a peace proposal being discussed by the United States and Ukraine could form the basis of a future agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, but that if not, Russia would continue fighting. US President Donald Trump has long said he wants to end the war in Ukraine, Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II, but his efforts so far, including a summit with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, have not yielded peace. A leaked 28-point US peace plan emerged last week, alarming Ukrainian and...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....