Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Tuesday there is "plenty of room" to cut interest rates further, though he noted that rising inflation could alter this outlook. Speaking at the WSJ CEO Council, Hassett, who is widely considered a front-runner to become the next Federal Reserve chair, compared the current economic environment to the 1990s, describing it as a "potentially extremely transformative time." When asked how he would respond if President Donald Trump requested interest rate cuts that he personally disagreed with, Hassett provided a specific example of when rate cuts...
The latest survey data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported an increase in JOLTs Job Openings, a key indicator of the health of the US job market. The actual number of job openings has reached 7.658 million, significantly exceeding the forecasted figure of 7.200 million. In comparison to the forecast, the actual job opening figure represents a considerable increase, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance of the US job market. Analysts had predicted a slight decrease in job vacancies, but the actual data has defied these expectations, demonstrating the resilience and...
US President Donald Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an interview with Politico during the European trading session on Tuesday for not lowering interest rates, calling him "not a smart guy." Trump also discussed the current status of ceasefire talks with Russia and Ukraine. Additional Statements Will make support for an immediate interest rate cut a litmus test in selecting a new Fed chair (well, of course). Ukraine hasn't held elections in a long time. Russia undoubtedly has a stronger position. On Ukraine: Europe isn't handling it well. European countries are 'rotting,'...
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Due to the prolonged government shutdown, this publication will provide data on changes in the number of job openings in September and October, as well as the number of layoffs and resignations. Ahead of the announcement, market participants expected job openings to reach 7.2 million in October. The last report released showed 7.227 million job openings in August. This report will be released 24 hours before the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy announcement and...
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on imports from Mexico if the country does not immediately release water supplies that the U.S. government says are due under a 1944 treaty. In a social media post, Trump confirmed he has signed a document to implement the tariffs if Mexico does not act quickly. He said the longer the water remains in Mexico, the greater the harm to farmers in the United States, particularly those along the border. The U.S. government says Mexico is still short about 865,000 acre-feet of water required under the treaty. The U.S. needs...
President Donald Trump announced an $11 billion aid package for American farmers, particularly soybean farmers, who have been hit by the trade war and falling crop prices. Tariffs against many countries, particularly China, have caused US soybean exports to plummet because China stopped purchasing American soybeans. China is the largest buyer, typically absorbing about half of US soybean exports. Many farmers are now being pressured by low crop prices and rising production costs. Most of the funds will be distributed through the US Department of Agriculture's new Farmer Bridge Assistance...
President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexico if it doesn't immediately provide additional water to help U.S. farmers, accusing the country of violating a treaty that outlines water sharing between the neighbors. Under the treaty, Mexico must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande through a network of interconnected dams and reservoirs every five years. Trump said in a social media post that Mexico "owes" the U.S. 800,000 acre-feet of water due to violations of the treaty over the past five years. He demanded Mexico...
US President Donald Trump has escalated trade tensions with Canada again after threatening to impose "severe" tariffs on fertilizer exports from the country. The threat was made at a White House event, where Trump also announced a multi-billion dollar aid package for US farmers affected by his own tariff policies. Previously, the Trump administration had already imposed broad tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports as part of the 2025 trade war, with Canadian fertilizer receiving preferential treatment in the form of lower tariffs but still subject to additional duties on volumes above...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....