Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The U.S. Senate is expected to hold a test vote on a spending bill on Sunday evening to end the longest ever U.S. government shutdown, with ABC News reporting that enough Democrats now supported the measure. ABC reported that there will be enough Democratic votes to pass a measure approving funding for the government until January 31, citing a senior Democratic senator. The bill is unlikely to include any extension of the Obamacare subsidies that the Democrats have been holding out for, ABC reported. The ABC report came just before the Senate kicked off a rare late-Sunday session at 6:00...
China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry insiders said. The Ministry of Commerce told some rare earth exporters they will be able to apply for new streamlined permits in the future and in industry briefings outlined the documents that will be required, two sources familiar with the matter said. The export curbs have become Beijing's most potent source of leverage in its trade rivalry with Washington, as China produces over 90% of the world's...
The Trump administration suspended docking fees for Chinese-built ships as part of a "trade truce" last month. The move has drawn criticism for weakening U.S. efforts to protect port access—so-called privileges—and increasing supply chain vulnerabilities. U.S. dependence on the Chinese fleet is now massive. Last year, more than $5 trillion worth of goods flowed through U.S. ports, including $3 trillion in imports, and nearly a third of that was carried by ships built, owned, or operated by China. The U.S. shipbuilding industry itself has declined sharply: from 77 commercial vessels built in...
The Bank of England's MPC voted 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 4% at its November 5 meeting, in line with expectations. Four members favored a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, reflecting growing support for easing. Policymakers noted that CPI inflation has peaked and underlying disinflation is developing, aided by still-restrictive policy, lower wage growth, and easing services inflation. A sluggish economy and increasing labor market slack are also strengthening disinflation. The MPC said the risks to achieving the 2% target are now more balanced: inflation persistence has become less of a concern, while...
The U.S. Supreme Court's tough questioning of President Donald Trump's global tariffs has fueled growing speculation that they will be overturned, but it also raises the potential for further turmoil as he is expected to shift to other trade tactics after an adverse ruling. On Wednesday, during oral arguments, the Supreme Court justices cast doubt on Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which contains no reference to tariffs—only language about regulating imports during a national emergency declared by the U.S....
The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 in October 2025 from 50 in September, beating forecasts of 50.8, pointing to the strongest expansion in the services sector since February. Both business activity (54.3 vs 49.9) and new orders (56.2 vs 50.4) rebounded while the continued contraction in employmet (48.2 vs 47.2) shows a lack of confidence in the continued strength of the economy. "There was no indication of widespread layoffs or reductions in force, but the federal government shutdown was mentioned several times as impacting business activity and generating concerns for future layoffs",...
Employment at US companies rose in October, signaling stabilization in the labor market after two straight months of declines. Private-sector jobs increased by 42,000 after a revised 29,000 decline in the previous month, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a gain of 30,000. (alg) Source: Bloomberg
American consumers struggling to access food assistance payments due to the government shutdown are unable to fill their shopping carts, and that's "hurtful," according to the company behind Stop & Shop and Food Lion grocery stores. The US government needs to quickly find a solution to the longest government shutdown on record "because it's very painful for people that nutritional support is no longer there," said Frans Muller, CEO of Ahold Delhaize, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. While Ahold hasn't seen a drop in sales due to the issues affecting the program that provides support...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....