Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting next week and announce its decision on March 19. Until then, the Fed will be in a blackout period, during which policymakers and officials will not be allowed to comment on the policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market sees little chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut next week. The probability of a rate cut in May currently stands at around 40%. Meanwhile, the Fed FXS Sentiment Index (FXS) remains in neutral territory, just below 100. Following its January meeting, the Fed left its policy...
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his country is stopping all federal funding to South Africa, but South Africa responded by saying it would not engage in "megaphone diplomacy". Trump had already signed an executive order to cut all U.S. financial assistance to South Africa last month, citing disapproval of its land policy and of its genocide case at the International Court of Justice against Washington's ally, Israel. "To go a step further, any Farmer (with family!) from South Africa, seeking to flee that country for reasons of safety, will be invited into the United States...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it remains to be seen if the Trump administration's tariff plans will prove to be inflationary, mapping out a checklist of things that could cause new import taxes to lead to more persistent price pressures. "In a simple case where we know it's a one-time thing, the textbook would say look through it," with no need for the Fed to respond with tighter monetary policy, Powell said at a question-and-answer session during an economic forum in New York City. "But you also want to be sure of a couple things," he continued. "If it turns into a series of...
In remarks from the Oval Office on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump discussed with disgust the massive tariffs Canada has on dairy and lumber and indicated that reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. could be "coming today" or next week. "They'll be met with the exact same tariff unless they drop it, and that's what reciprocal means," Trump said. "We may do it as early as today, or we'll wait till Monday or Tuesday, but that's what we're going to do. We're going to do, we're going to charge." The comments from Trump follow the 25% tariffs Trump placed on most goods from Canada this week....
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000 in February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. Source: FXstreet
US President Donald Trump hit markets with yet another structural pivot on his tariff agenda, announcing some temporary exemptions for certain sectors, as well as getting his 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada muddled up with his separate "reciprocal tariff" strategy that is currently slated to come into effect in April. While giving comments to reporters at the White House, President Trump meandered back and forth through several topics. Details on reciprocal tariffs remain almost entirely absent, other than the Trump administration's insistence that they are definitely happening next...
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said Mexico won't be required to pay tariffs on any goods that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade until April 2, but made no mention of a reprieve for Canada despite his Commerce secretary saying a comparable exemption was likely. "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "This Agreement is until April 2nd." Earlier on Thursday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick...
During her press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde outlined the ECB's decision to cut key interest rates by 25 basis points at the March policy meeting. She elaborated on the rationale behind the move, emphasizing its role in supporting economic stability. Lagarde also addressed questions from the media, providing insights into the ECB's outlook and future policy direction.ECB press conference key highlight. "Consumer confidence remains fragile"."Services are resilient"."Uncertainty is holding back investment"."Surveys suggest that employment growth is...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....