Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Brent crude oil futures inched up on Friday as drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated, while traders kept one eye on the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for clues about potential output changes. However, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were frozen after a system outage at exchange operator CME Group. Traders said they were informed by CME just before 0300 GMT of the halt due to a cooling issue at its CyrusOne data centres, which affected trading of all futures and options contracts on Globex. Brent oil trades on the Intercontinental Exchange,...
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to intraday gains near a two-week top heading into the European session on Friday, with bulls awaiting a sustained move beyond the $4,200 mark before placing fresh bets. The increasing likelihood of another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December turns out to be a key factor that continues to benefit the non-yielding yellow metal. The intraday move up could also be attributed to technical buying above the $4,170-4,175 hurdle. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) looks to build on the overnight bounce from an over one-week low and acts as a headwind for...
The US dollar weakened and is heading for one of its worst weeks since mid-year as markets increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Expectations of this policy easing arose after a series of data showed inflation starting to tame, retail sales slowing, and consumer confidence declining. Fed interest rate futures now project a probability of a 25 bps rate cut at over 80%, much higher than a week earlier. In such a situation, US bond yields tend to fall, weakening the dollar's appeal as a yield-bearing asset. Dovish comments from several Fed officials have...
Silver (XAG/USD) remains near its highest level since mid-October, supported by a combination of expectations for global interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. The prospect of lower interest rates makes non-yielding assets like silver and gold relatively more attractive than bonds. At the same time, concerns about the global economy and geopolitical uncertainty are driving some investors to seek "safe haven alternatives" to gold, and silver is also benefiting from these inflows. Fundamentally, silver has a dual advantage: it is not only a precious metal that hedges against inflation...
The EUR/USD pair traded flat on Thursday, trading around 1.1596, as market liquidity thinned during the US Thanksgiving holiday. Despite the limited movement, pressure on the US dollar remained as expectations mounted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. The combination of declining inflation, weak retail sales data, and declining consumer confidence has made the market increasingly confident that borrowing costs in the US will fall. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now prices around an 85% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. This...
Global oil prices are still trending lower and are now heading for their longest monthly decline in more than two years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is hovering around $59 per barrel, slightly above Wednesday's close before the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, while Brent is holding above $63 per barrel. The US oil benchmark is already on track for its fourth consecutive monthly decline in November, the longest since the first quarter of 2023. This price pressure reflects market concerns about demand and future supply policies. Meanwhile, market participants' attention is also focused on...
Gold prices have been stable but remain on track to rise for the fourth consecutive month. In Friday morning trading in Asia, gold bullion was trading around $4,163 per ounce, having risen more than 2% so far this week. Positive sentiment stems from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Comments from several Fed officials and the delayed release of economic data have made the market increasingly confident that borrowing costs will fall. Currently, swap market participants even assess a greater than 80% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut in December. For...
Oil prices rose on Thursday (November 27) as market participants weighed the possibility of reaching a deal in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, with trading volumes thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Brent crude futures closed up 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $63.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $59.10 a barrel at 1:46 p.m. ET (18:46 GMT). The market is torn between hope and skepticism over renewed peace efforts in Ukraine, said SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye. U.S. and Ukrainian delegations will meet this week to work on a...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....