Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
US-based employers announced 47,999 job cuts in June 2025, the lowest so far this year, compared to 93,816 in May and 48,786 a year earlier. "The bulk of companies cited economic conditions last month. We saw some DOGE activity and have tracked over 2,000 jobs directly attributed to tariffs this year, but for the most part it was a quiet June," said Andrew Challenger, Senior VP for Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The consumer products sector cut the most jobs (9,500), followed by services (4,463), financial (4,164), health care (4,068), retail (4,063) and government (3,801). Considering...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by September, and that President Donald Trump's trade tariffs were unlikely to stoke inflation as feared by the central bank. Speaking on Fox News' Ingraham Angle, Bessent said it was "bewildering" to him that the Fed had not cut interest rates in the face of President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, especially given that the central bank lowered its growth forecast. "I think that the criteria is that tariffs were not inflationary. If they're going to follow that criteria, I think that they could do it...
Donald Trump's $3.3 trillion tax-cutting and spending bill passed the Senate on Tuesday after Republican leaders worked hard to persuade opponents to support the legislation and hand the president a political victory. Senators voted 51-50 to pass the bill. Vice President J.D. Vance cast the tie-breaking vote. The package, which now goes to the House, combines $4.5 trillion in tax cuts with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. The package — informally known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill" — encompasses the president's entire legislative agenda in one package. Trump has personally lobbied...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, compared to forecasts of 48.8, signalling economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month. However, the rate of contraction slowed, amid a rebound in production (50.3 vs 45.4) and improvements in inventories (49.2 vs 46.7). On the other hand, new orders (46.4 vs 47.6), employment (45 vs 46.8) and backlog of orders (44.3 vs 47.1) contracted at a faster pace. Also, inflationary pressures increased slightly (69.7 vs 69.4) and tariffs-induced prices growth accelerated. Meanwhile, the...
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings in May rose sharply to 7.77 million, well above the market estimate of 7.3 million. This indicates that the US labor market is still quite strong. The job opening rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% previously. Meanwhile, the number of people who resigned from their jobs also increased to 3.29 million, indicating workers' confidence in new opportunities. On the other hand, the number of layoffs actually decreased to 1.6 million, indicating that the layoff rate is getting lower. This data could reduce pressure on the...
Goldman Sachs says it now expects the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates earlier than initially anticipated, citing relatively mild effects from U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff agenda. Writing in a note to clients, the analysts led by Jan Hatzius said they now predict that the central bank will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points in September, prior to an earlier forecast that the next reduction would come in December. "While it is far from clear, we think the odds of a cut in September are somewhat above 50% because we see several routes to get there --...
Euro zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat on Tuesday, meaning consumer prices in the single currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to come in at 2% in the twelve months to June. Euro zone inflation had fallen by more than expected to 1.9% in May. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, was unchanged at 2.3% in June. The closely watched services inflation print picked up to 3.3% in June, after cooling...
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), and Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank (ECB) President, will speak at the 2025 ECB Forum on Central Banking at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday, July 1.Alongside Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be taking part in the same panel. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% following the June policy meeting, and the revised Summary of Economic Projections (the so-called dot-plot) showed that policymakers...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....