Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Although the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and European Union remains unclear, there are risks of an escalation in tensions, according to analysts at Barclays. European trade officials met with their Trump administration counterparts in Washington this week, as a pause to sweeping "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs is due to expire on Wednesday. But a trade agreement has yet to be reached, with the EU pushing for a deal "in principle" that would include immediate tariff relief for key sectors. Media reports have suggested that a pact could see the European Commission --...
Investors will be keeping a close eye on tariff headlines out of Washington next week, as a temporary suspension of punitive import levies is set to expire. If that Wednesday deadline passes without an increase in trade tensions, it could prove positive for the markets. Negotiators from more than a dozen major U.S. trading partners are rushing to reach agreements with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration by July 9 to avoid even higher tariffs, and Trump and his team have kept up the pressure in recent days. On Wednesday, Trump announced a deal with Vietnam that he says will impose...
US President Donald Trump began a call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Thursday, the latest step in his efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. The call was underway, according to Russia's state-run Tass news service, which said the Kremlin would brief reporters after it was completed. Trump had announced the call earlier on social media, writing: "Will speak with President Putin of Russia at 10:00 a.m. Thank you!" The president is also likely to call his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The call follows the...
The ISM Services PMI rose to 50.8 in June 2025 from 49.9 in May, slightly above forecasts of 50.5. The reading showed economic activity in the services sector increased in June after just one month of contraction, although slow growth and economic uncertainty were frequently referenced by firms. A rebound was seen in business activity/production (54.2 vs 50), new orders (51.3 vs 46.4), inventories (52.7 vs 49.7) and new export orders (51.1 vs 48.5). Meanwhile, price pressure eased a bit (67.5 vs 68.7) although price increases impacting costs of operations were mentioned more frequently this...
Initial jobless claims in the US eased by 4,000 from the previous week to 233,000 on the period ending June 28th, less than market expectations of 240,000. While the figure reflected the softest increase in unemployment in six weeks, it remained firmly above averages from earlier in the year to reflect the gradual softening of the US labor market, albeit still robust in a historical standard. In turn, outstanding unemployment claims were unchanged at 1,964,000, the highest since late 2021, and above expectations of 1,960,000 to maintain the view that the unemployed are undergoing more...
Euro zone policymakers cut rates last month to prevent an unwarrented tightening of monetary conditions and in the face of elevated uncertainty around trade, the accounts of their June 3-5 meeting showed on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the eighth time in a year last month but signalled a pause in any further easing as inflation is already back at target and erratic U.S. trade policy creates too much uncertainty. "Members underlined that the outlook for the global economy remained highly uncertain," ," the ECB said. "Elevated trade uncertainty was likely to prevail for some time...
Bill Pulte, who heads the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is asking Congress to investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alleging that his recent testimony to the Senate about the central bank's plans to renovate its headquarters was "deceptive." "I am asking Congress to investigate Chairman Jerome Powell, his political bias, and his deceptive testimony in the Senate, which was enough to be removed 'for some reason,'" Pulte said Wednesday in a post on the social media platform X, alleging that Powell made inaccurate statements without providing evidence. Pulte has stepped up his...
ADP Employment Change report to show gains in June US job growthThis week, the US labour market is set to take centre stage, adding to the combo of factors driving market sentiment as of late, namely mitigated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising hopes of further progress on the trade front and prospects of the resurgence of Fed easing in Q3, as well as the renewed animosity from President Donald Trump toward Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the US economy having not dissipated, they seem to have been put on the...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....