Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision and release its revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as the dot plot, after its March policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to leave policy settings unchanged for the second straight meeting, after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.25%-4.5% in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors see little chance of a rate cut in March while pricing in about a 30% chance of a 25 bps cut in May. Therefore, the...
The Bank of Japan kept its key policy rate unchanged, as authorities continued to assess the potential impact on the global economy from escalating trade tensions. Governor Kazuo Ueda's board voted to keep the policy rate at 0.5% Wednesday at the end of a two-day gathering, according to its statement. The result was in line with the expectations of all 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank added a reference to the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies to its list of risks to the outlook. The stand-pat decision comes as domestic...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump's aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates. With markets nervous over Trump's proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty. The White House "is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation," he said in a speech for the...
Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump's tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024. In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter...
The Bank of Japan could hike interest rates by as soon as May, ING analysts said in a Monday note, as gross domestic product data showed the economy grew much more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. A May rate hike could come especially if springtime wage negotiations between major Japanese labor unions and employers yields another year of bumper hikes. Strong wage hikes in 2024 were a key motivator of the BOJ's ongoing rate hike cycle, as Japanese private consumption and inflation picked up sharply through most of 2024. The BOJ expects this trend to continue in 2025,...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...