Thursday, 31 July 2025
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Powell's press conference takeaways.
Thursday, 31 July 2025 02:08 WIB | FISCAL & MONETARY |ECONOMIC

Economy is in a solid position.
Inflation is somewhat above target.
Believe the current stance of policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way.
Moderation in growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending.
Activity in the housing sector remains weak.
Unemployment is low and has remained in a narrow range.
Wide set of indicators suggests the job market is near maximum employment.
Expects PCE up 2.5% and Core up 2.7% in 12 months through June.
Most measures of longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed's goal.
Tariffs have exerted pressure on some goods, but the wider impact is uncertain.
See current stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks.
On track to wrap up policy review by late summer.
We are modestly restrictive.
Economy not behaving as though modestly restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately.
Expect to have more information in coming months.
We have made no decisions about September.
Statement about uncertainty reflects change since the last meeting; it had not diminished further since the June meeting.
Been a very dynamic time for trade negotiations.
Still a ways away from seeing where things settle.
Many uncertainties are left to resolve.
Feels like there's much more to come.
GDP and PDFP numbers came in right about where we expected them.
If you look at the labour market, by many measures it is still in balance.
Very similar to where they were a year ago, job creation has slowed, but so has the supply of workers.
Demand and supply for workers are coming down at about the same rate.
Downside risks to the labour market are certainly apparent.
Main number you have to look at now is the unemployment rate.
Breakeven number for job creation has come down.
This section below was published at 18:00 GMT to cover the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the immediate market reaction.

At its July policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held the Federal Funds Target Range (FFTR) steady at 4.25%–4.50%, exactly as markets had anticipated.

Indeed, in a closely divided vote, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged, offering no clear signal on when borrowing costs might be cut. Two governors—both Trump appointees who share the president's view that policy remains too restrictive—registered their dissent.

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