Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Silver fell below the $50 per ounce threshold, pressured by a stronger US dollar and fading expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. Traders are now focusing on a series of key US data releases following the end of the country's longest government shutdown, including the September employment report on Thursday, for clearer insight into labor market conditions. The market is pricing in a roughly 40% chance of another Fed rate cut in December, down sharply from nearly 100% immediately after the September decision, amid a lack of recent government data and growing...
The Japanese yen briefly touched its lowest level since early February before recovering slightly in Tuesday morning's Asian trading session. This slight recovery occurred without strong buying momentum, but was helped by comments from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who signaled intervention to curb the yen's weakening. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment has restored support for the yen as a safe haven asset. Meanwhile, weakening demand for the US dollar has pushed the USD/JPY pair back below 155.00. On the domestic policy front, market vigilance has been renewed...
Gold held a three-day drop, hurt by fading expectations for another US interest-rate reduction next month. Bullion traded near $4,020 an ounce, after losing almost 4% over the prior three sessions. With investors awaiting a backlog of data after the recent US government shutdown, several Federal Reserve officials have cautioned against another cut, although Governor Christopher Waller came out in favor. Interest-rate swaps now imply a less-than-50% likelihood of a December cut after all but pricing in a quarter-point reduction less than a month ago. The shift in...
Gold steadied, after three days of losses underpinned by fading expectations of a US interest rate cut next month. Bullion was holding above $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday. With traders and policymakers still awaiting a backlog of data after the longest US government shutdown in history, several Federal Reserve officials have cautioned against another reduction in the cost of borrowing. Interest-rate swaps now imply a less-than-50% likelihood of a December rate cut after all but pricing in a quarter-point reduction less than a month ago. Lower interest rates typically make non-yielding bullion...
Oil steadied as investors weighed the impact from an emerging surplus against US sanctions on Russia that have upended some crude flows. West Texas Intermediate traded below $60 a barrel after a modest loss in the previous session. Brent closed near $64. The price of Russia's flagship crude has plunged to the lowest level in more than two years, just days before US sanctions hit major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. Oil futures are down this year as expectations for a global glut weigh on the outlook, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record...
Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, citing a production surge that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. The bank forecast Brent crude will average $56 a barrel and WTI $52 in 2026, below current forward curves of $63 and $60. "The 2025-2026 supply wave mostly results from long-cycle projects that saw Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) just before the pandemic, got delayed during Covid, and are now all coming online and from OPEC's strategic decision to unwind production cuts," the bank noted. OPEC+, or the...
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and diminishing expectations of a US interest rate cut next month, as investors awaited delayed economic data this week that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's policy direction. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading at $4,030, weakening throughout the trading session due to the stronger dollar and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Therefore, currency markets have priced in less than a 50% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the December meeting. As a result, the US...
Oil reversed earlier losses as signs that activity had resumed at a key Russian port were countered by wider geopolitical risks to prices. Brent was marginally higher above $64 a barrel, after adding more than 2% on Friday following an attack on Russia's Novorossiysk facility. Two tankers moored on Sunday at the port, indicating operational activity. The attack on Novorossiysk, along with Iran's seizure of an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, injected a fresh geopolitical premium into prices as the market faces pressure from an emerging global surplus. Traders are also...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....