Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that he expects trade tariffs under President Donald Trump as having only a limited impact on inflation, and that the central bank should not stall in adjusting policy. Speaking at an event in Australia, Waller said his "baseline" view was that "any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a non-persistent manner." He recommended that the Fed look through the effects of Trump's trade policies when adjusting interest rates. "I concede that the effects of tariffs could be larger than I anticipate, depending...
Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a high-profile meeting with leading entrepreneurs in Beijing on Monday, signalling a renewed emphasis on supporting the private sector following years of regulatory pressure. The meeting, attended by prominent figures such as Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu, and Xiaomi founder Lei Jun, highlighted the government's pivot towards fostering private enterprise. Other attendees included Yu Renrong, chairman of Will Semiconductor Co., and Wang Xingxing, founder of Unitree Robotics. According to state media...
New bank loans in China surged more than expected to a record high in January as the central bank moved to shore up a patchy economic recovery, reinforcing expectations for more stimulus in coming months as U.S. tariffs threaten to pile more pressure on the economy. Chinese banks extended 5.13 trillion yuan ($706.40 billion) in new yuan loans in January, more than quadrupling the December figure, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Friday, beating analysts' forecasts Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 4.5 trillion yuan last month, up sharply...
Retail sales in the US contracted 0.9% month-over-month in January 2025, much worse than forecasts of a 0.1% drop, and following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December. It is the biggest decline in retail sales since March 2023, with severe weather and LA fires weighing on consumer spending. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (-4.6%) recorded the biggest decline, followed by motor vehicles and part dealers (-2.8%); nonstore retailers (-1.9%); furniture (-1.7%); building material & garden equipment (-1.3%); clothing (-1.2%); health and personal care...
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday took what could become his most consequential action involving international trade early in his second administration. Trump, who signed a memorandum calling for reciprocal tariffs, told a group of reporters in the Oval Office that "if you build your product in the United States, there are no tariffs." The goal is to bring down America's budget deficit, estimated to be approaching $2 trillion. The president added that the action "is fair to all. No other country can complain." Trump ordered Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, his picks for commerce...
President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a presidential memorandum outlining his plan to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on foreign countries. "They put a tax or a tariff on us and we put a tariff on them," Trump said at a news conference in the Oval Office. The president said that under the plan, the U.S. would treat other countries' non-tariff policies as unfair trade practices that require tariffs in response. That includes value-added taxes, or VATs, and other practices deemed by the U.S. Trade Representative's office to be unfair restrictions on trade. Trump said that foreign countries...
Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy costs, rose by 0.3% over a month in January 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in December, in line with market forecasts. On a yearly basis, core producer inflation was 3.6% in January, down slightly from an upwardly revised 3.7% in December but well above market estimates of 3.3%.Source: Trading Economics
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 213K for the week ending February 8, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. This print missed initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's revised tally of 220K (from 219K). The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average dropped to 216.00K, marking a decrease of 1K from the prior week's revised average.Source: FXStreet
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....