Oil steadied after a run of declines, as traders await US President Donald Trump's next moves to halt the war in Ukraine after he announced tariffs on India this week for taking Russian oil.
Brent was marginally higher above $66 a barrel, after six straight drops, the longest run since May. Trump — who'd set a deadline of Friday for Moscow to agree to a truce — said that he'd be willing to meet with Vladimir Putin, even if the Russian leader hasn't yet agreed to sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Earlier this week, Trump doubled levies on all Indian imports to 50% as a penalty for the nation taking Russian crude, prompting state-owned oil refiners to pull back from purchases and look elsewhere. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said the US may also impose tariffs on China at some point, when asked about targeting countries that buy Moscow's energy.
Oil has slumped in August following three months of gains. Investors are braced for a potential glut later this year after OPEC+ followed through on a campaign to relax output curbs. At the same time, crude futures have been weighed down by signs of slower growth in the world's largest economy as Trump's wider trade tariffs took a toll on activity, posing a risk to energy demand.
"Geopolitics remains the primary driving force," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM. "The market does not expect a significant tightening of the oil balance, as an oil price rally would run counter to US interests. Consequently, oil has been struggling to gain momentum recently."
Oil traders, producers and users have proved adept in recent years at responding to supply challenges, whether they stem from conflict, geopolitical risks, or administrative hurdles such as sanctions and tariffs. Among signs of that flexibility this week were Russian Urals cargoes — from the nation's west — being offered to Chinese buyers who don't typically take such grades.
Brent's prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — shows that near-term conditions have become less tight. The widely watched metric has narrowed to 62 cents a barrel in backwardation, compared with a differential of more than $1 a barrel a month ago.
Source: Bloomberg
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