Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ only raised November production by 137,000 bpd, a smaller increase than would have affected the market. At 08:08 GMT, Brent rose 1.2% to $65.33 per barrel, while WTI rose 1.3% to $61.64. These limited increases are short-term supply increases.

Analysts believe the market was previously anticipating a larger increase. Janiv Shah (Rystad) said that an increase of 137,000 bpd still risks "bloating" the surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026. Behind the scenes, Russia is pushing for a 137,000 bpd increase, while Saudi Arabia was rumored to want a two- to four-fold increase to seize market share more quickly.

Other supply factors also loom: rising Venezuelan exports, the return of Kurdish oil flows through Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern cargoes destined for November shipments. Saudi Arabia kept Arab Light's OSP to Asia unchanged, even though some refiners had previously projected a small increase—those expectations faded as Middle East oil premiums fell to a 22-month low. The upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East also has the potential to restrain the price rally.

On the supporting side, Chinese stockpiling, geopolitical risk premiums, less efficient trade routes, and sanctions helped maintain a price floor. However, the weak demand outlook in the fourth quarter continues to limit gains. Without a new bullish catalyst, says Priyanka Sachdeva (Phillip Nova), oil prices are likely to remain subdued even if OPEC+ opts for a smaller-than-expected increase. (az)
Source: Newsmaker.id