Gold climbed to $4,140–$4,150 as the market grew more confident that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. ADP data showed that US companies lost an average of >11,250 jobs per week, raising the probability of a 25 bps rate cut to 68% (Dec) and 80% (Jan). The impact: Yields and the USD tended to weaken, so the opportunity cost of holding gold decreased.
Holding the rally: If today's Fedspeak (Williams, Waller, et al.) is hawkish, gold could hold; if dovish, the rally could continue. Additionally, the final progress of the US shutdown could reduce safe-haven demand when official data returns. As long as the USD/yield does not spike, gold's bias remains bullish; the $4,150 area is a key level.
At the time of this analysis, gold prices were around $4,141.
Disclaimer:
This article is analytical in nature and not a definitive reference. Please consider fundamental and technical developments in trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
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