As I conclude 2025 from Beijing, I don't claim to have the ability to predict the future. Predictions often fall short when judged by accuracy. However, years as a journalist have taught me something even more valuable: knowing what truly important questions to ask. And as 2026 approaches, there are some big questions that are hard to avoid, especially as the world has just experienced a tumultuous year—tariff wars, technology restrictions, and volatile financial markets.

One of the most intriguing issues comes from the relationship between the United States and China. In late November, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated an idea that sounded almost overly ambitious: President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping could meet in person up to four times throughout 2026. The first meeting is planned for Trump's visit to China in April, followed by a reciprocal invitation for Xi to the United States. In the latter half of the year, the global calendar provides two other major stages—the China-hosted APEC summit and the US-hosted G-20.

If this scenario materializes, the world will witness an unprecedented intensity of in-person meetings between the leaders of the world's two greatest powers. However, the question is both simple and worrying: will this frequency of meetings bring stability, or will it increase friction?

The experience of 2025 offers an important lesson. Every high-level meeting between Washington and Beijing is almost always preceded by political and economic maneuvering to strengthen their respective bargaining positions. Tariffs, technological restrictions, and trade policies are often used as tools of pressure. The impact is felt not only at the negotiating table but also shakes global financial markets and global supply chains. If this pattern repeats in 2026, the world may have to brace for more frequent and intense periods of uncertainty.

However, there is another side to the story. Since Trump and Xi's only face-to-face meeting last October, relations between the two countries have appeared calmer. China has resumed buying soybeans from the US and exporting rare earth magnets, while Washington has suspended tariffs on Chinese vessels and postponed trade measures against China's semiconductor industry. These steps signal that dialogue, even if brief, can ease previously simmering tensions. If a single brief meeting could have such a significant impact, imagine the impact of four such meetings in a single year. Stability, or even limited cooperation, would be welcome news for businesses and financial markets on both sides of the Pacific. Trade flows would be more predictable, and the risk of policy surprises might be reduced.

However, not everyone will be comfortable with a calmer world between these two giants. America's traditional allies in Asia, such as Japan, are beginning to show signs of unease. Recent reports indicate disappointment in Tokyo over Washington's lack of support in disputes with Beijing, including over Taiwan. Statements by US officials emphasizing that America can support Japan while still cooperating with China only reinforce the impression that this balance is not easy, and not all allies are benefiting.

This is the major dilemma heading into 2026. America appears to be trying to balance its relationship with China without completely sacrificing its allies. If successful, the world may enter a more stable and less confrontational phase of US-China relations. However, if it fails, or if too many parties feel left out, the global order could shift toward greater exclusion—a "G-2" world where two major powers speak loudest, while others can only adapt. (az)

Source: Newsmaker.id