Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Economy is in a solid position.Inflation is somewhat above target.Believe the current stance of policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way.Moderation in growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending.Activity in the housing sector remains weak.Unemployment is low and has remained in a narrow range.Wide set of indicators suggests the job market is near maximum employment.Expects PCE up 2.5% and Core up 2.7% in 12 months through June.Most measures of longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed's goal.Tariffs have exerted pressure on some goods, but the wider...
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2025, in line with expectations. Policymakers noted that although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. In addition, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists. The Fed reinforced that additional adjustments to the target range for...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the U.S. central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures. "It makes sense to cut the FOMC's policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now," Waller told a gathering of the Money Marketeers of New York University. "I see the hard and soft data on economic activity and the labor market as consistent: The economy is still growing, but its momentum...
The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, a record of policymakers' most recent meeting showed. "While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation," the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June 17-18 meeting said. New rate projections released...
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell resumed two days of congressional testimony on Wednesday, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee after scrutiny before a House panel the day before that focused on the Fed's concerns that the Trump administration's tariff plans will raise inflation. Powell's prepared testimony submitted to the Senate was the same as that delivered to the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed said as the Senate hearing began. Even with recent inflation more moderate than expected, the central bank expects rising import taxes will lead to higher inflation...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...