Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded in the negative territory on Wednesday. Upbeat US Manufacturing PMI data and this week's jobs data indicated that the US economy remains strong, which boosted the greenback. However, traders are increasingly convinced that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates this month. This, in turn, could support the JPY in the near term. Further, ongoing political uncertainty in France, political tensions in South Korea, and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY against the USD. Investors will be keeping...
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday as Israel threatened to attack the Lebanese state if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, and as investors positioned for OPEC+ to announce an extension of supply cuts this week. Brent crude futures posted their biggest gains in two weeks, rising by $1.79, or 2.5%, to settle at $73.62 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose the most since Nov. 18, gaining $1.84, or 2.7%, to close at $69.94 per barrel. Israeli forces have continued strikes against what they say are Hezbollah fighters ignoring last week's truce agreement in...
Gold moved higher mid-afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar weakened. Gold for February delivery was last seen up US$8.50 to US$2,667.00 per ounce. The precious metal has been mostly rangebound since correcting from a record high of US$2,800.80 on Oct.30, as the dollar surged following the U.S. election and inflation remains stuck above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. However the dollar eased early on Tuesday, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.35 points to 106.1. Treasury yields were mixed. The U.S. two-year note was last seen paying 4.159%, down 3.3 basis points, while the yield...
Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher to trade around $2,630 on Tuesday (3/12) after comments from a Federal Reserve (Fed) speaker raised the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates at its December policy meeting. Lower interest rates are positive for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets. Rising geopolitical risks can also support Gold amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, now exacerbated by the outbreak of civil war in Syria, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and political risks in France. During times of crisis, investors turn to Gold for...
The dollar weakened against all G10 currencies except the yen, which pared Monday's gains, ahead of U.S. data and a slew of Fed speeches. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.1%, after a 0.5% gain Monday; its volatility trend shifted slightly lower as currency markets still favor a quarter-point interest rate cut by the FOMC this month. The U.S. jobs report is due later in the day, followed by private employment on Wednesday and key nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee are also scheduled to...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...