Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Gold prices edged higher in Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in South Korea spurred safe-haven demand, although anticipation of further cues on U.S. interest rates kept traders on hold. The yellow metal has seen some relief this week as concerns over a collapse of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire also spurred safe-haven demand. However, gold's gains were largely capped by a surge in the dollar, as the greenback surged on uncertainty over the long-term outlook for U.S. interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,646.53 an ounce, while February gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,668.60 an...
The dollar index held steady around 106.4 on Wednesday as investors continued to assess the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Data released Tuesday showed a modest increase in U.S. job openings in October, while layoffs declined, indicating worker confidence in the labor market. Traders are now focusing on the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls data due Friday for further insight into labor market trends. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak in New York on Wednesday afternoon. Currently, markets are pricing in about...
Oil prices were steady in Asian trade on Wednesday after rising sharply in the previous session as Israel threatened to strike Lebanon if a ceasefire with Hezbollah fails. However, oil's momentum was halted by industry data showing an unexpected increase in US crude inventories. Sentiment also remained largely uneasy ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where the cartel is widely expected to delay plans to increase output. Still, oil retained some risk premium as Israel and Hezbollah repeatedly violated a recently announced ceasefire. Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine also kept...
Gold held above $2,640 an ounce on Wednesday as markets continued to assess the political and monetary outlook, while closely monitoring key economic data releases. A recent report showed that U.S. job openings were higher than expected, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. Investors now look ahead to Friday's anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, along with additional speeches from several Fed officials to gauge the central bank's potential policy moves this month. The odds for a 25bps rate cut in the federal funds rate currently stand at 73%, which benefits gold by...
The Australian dollar (AUD) moved lower in response to weak domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures. Given that headline inflation in Australia has eased to the central bank's target range of 2%-3%, slower growth could put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to respond with lower interest rates. Furthermore, fresh US export curbs on China, concerns about China's fragile economic recovery, and tariffs to be imposed by US President-elect Donald Trump turned out to be other factors weighing on the China-proxy Australian currency. On the other hand, the US dollar (USD)...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...