Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The euro strengthened on Wednesday ahead of a French no-confidence vote, while the Australian dollar fell to a four-month low on slowing economic growth and gains resumed after South Korea's president resigned after declaring martial law. The European common currency held steady at $1.0512 and 82.90 pence ahead of a vote by French lawmakers on a no-confidence motion that is almost certain to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier's fragile coalition. The debate is due to begin at 4 p.m. in Paris (1500 GMT), with a vote expected about three hours later, parliamentary officials...
Gold fell on Wednesday as a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar outweighed safe-haven demand as markets awaited U.S. jobs data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for clues on the U.S. central bank's policy outlook. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,641.79 an ounce by 0902 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,663.70. The dollar index reflects strength that makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Traders see about a 74% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. U.S. central...
The USD/JPY pair extended its overnight upsurge from the 148.65 area, the lowest level since October 11 and gained strong follow-through traction on Wednesday (4/12). The intraday upsurge extended into the first half of the European session and lifted the spot prices to a fresh intraday high, around the 150.55 region in the last hour. Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates amid expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation. This, in turn, pushed the US Treasury bond yields...
Oil prices firmed on Wednesday as market participants weighed up geopolitical tensions and the prospect of OPEC+ extending supply cuts against weaker demand. Brent crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.85 a barrel by 0700 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $70.13. On Tuesday, Brent posted its biggest gain in two weeks, rising 2.5%. A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, South Korea's curtailed declaration of martial law and a rebel offensive in Syria that threatens to draw in forces from several oil-producing countries, all...
Silver prices held its recent advance to around $31 per ounce on Wednesday, hovering at an over one-week high as markets anticipate that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its December meeting. Currently, markets are pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this month. Investors are now focused on upcoming US jobs data and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later this week for more clarity on the Fed's monetary policy path. Silver and other precious metals also benefited from increased safe-haven demand following South Korea's failed martial law...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...